Favorites stage 17 Vuelta a España 2025 | Red jersey battle continues on brand-new (and hopefully closed-off) monster

Wednesday’s stage runs from O Barco de Valdeorras to the summit of the Alto de El Morredero, over just 143.2 kilometers. Good news for viewers: aside from the third-category Paso de las Traviesas, there are no major obstacles before the final climb. That means it’s likely to be a battle for the breakaway of the day.

The Paso de las Traviesas is a steady climb, averaging just 4.1 percent, nothing too difficult. That means almost everyone should be able to contest the intermediate sprint later on. Good news for green jersey wearer Mads Pedersen, who won’t expect to play much of a role beyond that. Which climbers will manage to get a head start? And which team will take control?

Reportedly, this climb has never before been raced in the Vuelta and has never been included in a pro cycling race. And the riders won’t be tackling it from just any side, but from the steepest: 8.8 kilometers at an average of 9.7 percent. If the road eases off, the finish will be placed before that, so we’re really only getting the hardest section of the climb.

What does that look like? The first five kilometers are brutally steep, with pitches up to 16 percent. After that it eases slightly, but still holds between 6.9 and 8.5 percent all the way to the top. Perfect terrain to stretch out any gaps, or to grind your way back if you’ve been dropped. Who will triumph at the summit of this former ski resort?

Climbs
75.1 km - Paso de las Traviesas (7.8 km at 4.1%)
143.2 km - Alto de El Morredero (8.8 km at 9.7%)

Times
Start: 1:41 PM (local time) | 7:41 AM (Eastern Time)
Finish: around 5:10 PM (local time) | 11:10 AM (Eastern Time)

Weather hasn’t often been an issue in this Vuelta, but Wednesday’s start could bring clouds and rain. Temperatures will stay below 20 degrees, with a light southwest wind (force 2). By the finale, the sun should win out, pushing temperatures toward 22 degrees. At the top of the Alto de El Morredero, though, it will cool down significantly. Clouds could linger there, even bringing a drizzle.

Will we even get to finish this time? If so, stage 17 could finally deliver the showdown stage 16 was supposed to: a direct duel between Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) and João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), with the outsiders being the riders currently battling for third place in the GC.

Tom Pidcock already looked sharp on Tuesday when the road tilted steeply upward for a while, but can the Brit from Q36.5 hold off Red Bull’s Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari on a longer climb? At the end of the second week, he couldn’t, but maybe after the second rest day the batteries are recharged and the balance of power has shifted.

That much was clear when Felix Gall of Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale lost nearly a minute in Stage 16. From the top ten, we expect more on such a steep finish from Matthew Riccitello of Israel-Premier Tech. And can Egan Bernal deliver another big ride, and not only fight for the stage win but perhaps also leapfrog riders like Junior Lecerf and Torstein Træen into the top ten?

Of course, it’s not a given that the GC men will fight for the stage win, much will depend on UAE Team Emirates-XRG. Despite the plan to ride for Almeida, Marc Soler still joined the breakaway on Tuesday. Jay Vine and Juan Ayuso have also done so multiple times already, both having taken two stage wins apiece.

Riders capable of winning in such a brutal finale? There aren’t many, though Mikel Landa (Soudal-Quick Step) and the Groupama-FDJ duo Clément Braz Afonso and Brieuc Rolland looked very strong on stage 16. We’d also give a chance to Johannes Staune-Mittet (Decathlon), Santiago Buitrago and Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain), and Eddie Dunbar (Jayco-AlUla) to hold off the favorites.

Top favorites: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) and João Almeida (UAE Emirates-XRG)
Outsiders: Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5), Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech) and Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers)
Long shots:Marc Soler, Juan Ayuso, Jay Vine (all UAE Emirates-XRG), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla), Johannes Staune-Mittet(Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Santiago Buitrago, Antonio Tiberi (both Bahrain Victorious), Clément Braz Afonso and Brieuc Rolland (both Groupama-FDJ) and Mikel Landa (Soudal-Quick Step)