Favorites stage 3 – Giro d’Italia 2025 | Final climb may be too brutal for riders like Van Aert, GC contenders beware!

Albania has not disappointed with the road choices for these first three Giro stages, and stage 3 is no exception. The 160-kilometer loop starts and finishes in Vlorë, meaning we’re in for a scenic circuit featuring two categorized climbs.

The first, Qafa Shakellës, appears after 60 kilometers and could be decisive in shaping the day’s breakaway. Everyone will want to be in it, and with 5.3 km at an average of 4.2%, it’s a great launchpad to separate the strongest from the rest. The final kilometer of that climb kicks up to 8.6% average gradient, which could cause real damage.

After this climb, the route descends before reaching the bonus sprint, immediately followed by an uncategorized kicker of 5.1 kilometers at 6.8% average gradient. It’s unclear why this climb doesn’t award KOM points, but it will definitely sting the legs. And that’s important, because the biggest challenge of the day still lies ahead.

After the intermediate sprint, at the 110-kilometer mark, the riders tackle the Qafa e Llogarasë, a proper mountain climb. It’s 10.5 kilometers long at an average of 7.4%, with maximum ramps hitting 12%. It’s steep, but much will depend on how aggressively the GC teams decide to race. So far, most have stated they plan to take a cautious approach during the Albanian stages.

That may be wise, because the finish line isn’t at the top, it comes 38.4 kilometers later. Roughly half of that is a long descent, and then teams will have about 20 kilometers of rolling terrain to organize a chase or launch for the stage win. It’s all up in the air, and for punchy riders, the hope is that the big GC names don’t go full gas and start dropping people. But on stage 3 of a grand tour, nothing is guaranteed.

Times
Start: 1:25 PM (local time) | 07:25 AM (Eastern time)
Finish: around 5:14 PM (local time) | 11:14 AM (Eastern time)

With all the climbing and descending on Sunday, the weather could play a role, but the forecast looks favorable. In both the start and finish town of Vlorë, the sun will be shining with a pleasant 22°C. A light west-southwest wind (force 1–2) is expected and shouldn’t have any significant impact on the race.

When you hear 10.5 km at 7.4%, you think GC riders, because some serious damage can definitely be done on a climb like that. If any team decides to light things up, all eyes turn to UAE Team Emirates-XRG and Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, with Juan Ayuso and Primoz Roglic as the clear leaders. But with the finish so far from the summit, we might also see secondary leaders or early attackers come into play, like Adam Yates and Isaac Del Toro (UAE), or Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull).

If a select group of favorites can ride away, Roglic and Ayuso are proven punchers, but there are others who could outsprint them. Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) might even be the top favorite in that scenario, though he could also be part of the breakaway. Other double-threat riders include Richard Carapaz (EF), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Davide Piganzoli (Polti), and Max Poole (Picnic-PostNL).

Less explosive climbers like Egan Bernal (INEOS), Michael Storer (Tudor), Simon Yates (Visma), Romain Bardet (Picnic), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain), and David Gaudu (Groupama) would likely need to win from a breakaway, if they’re given the freedom to go. After Saturday’s time trial, there are already some time gaps. Riders like Thymen Arensman (INEOS) and Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), who lost over a minute on day 1, may be far enough down in the GC to be allowed up the road.

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That brings us to the battle for the breakaway, which is expected to be intense. Many teams in this Giro have their sights set on getting riders up the road. Alpecin-Deceuninck could go with Quinten Hermans, Bahrain Victorious has Pello Bilbao, and Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale will likely back Nicolas Prodhomme. At EF Education–EasyPost, Jefferson Cepeda could get the green light, and Marco Frigo is almost a guaranteed attacker for Israel–Premier Tech.

Other strong lineups? Jayco-AlUla has Paul Double, Koen Bouwman, and Filippo Zana for breakaway moves. Tudor can play two cards with Marco Brenner and Florian Stork, while XDS–Astana seems ready to throw almost their entire squad into the mix. Christian Scaroni is the most explosive option there, while Wout Poels and Lorenzo Fortunato may be saving their legs for later.

Top favorites:Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) and Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious)
Outsiders:Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Paul Double (Jayco-AlUla) and Christian Scaroni (XDS Astana) Long shots: Adam Yates and Isaac Del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Davide Piganzoli (Polti VisitMalta), Max Poole (Picnic-PostNL), Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), Florian Stork (Tudor), Koen Bouwman (Jayco-AlUla), Quinten Hermans (Alpecin-Deceuninkc) and Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech)