Favorites stage 5 Paris–Nice 2026 | Revenge will be the key word on a new hilly stage

After Wednesday’s crosswind chaos and climbing action, we simply roll straight on in stage 5 of Paris–Nice. The start in Cormoranche-sur-Saône should be fairly flat, but it does not take long before the road begins to rise and fall. The Côte de Lentilly and Côte de Trèves come in the first half of the stage and are not especially difficult, but they do help soften up the legs. From the Ain and Rhône regions, the route briefly skirts along the Loire, but it is in the Ardèche where the real fun can begin.

That is the same region that hosted the 2025 European Championships, and it means plenty of punchy terrain. The decisive phase comes late, but after an intermediate sprint in Sarras, the riders face four climbs in the final 35 kilometres. There is barely a flat metre, and the hills are genuinely demanding. The Côte de Sècheras is the first test (3.9 km at 7%), but it is the final 20 kilometres where the real differences should be made.

Next up comes the hardest climb of the day: the Côte de Saint-Jean-de-Muzols. It is only 2.2 kilometres long, but averages 11%. With ramps hitting 16%, this is the sort of place where the race can explode. After a short descent, the riders immediately take on the final classified climb, the Côte de Saint-Barthélemy-le-Plain (3.2 km at 7.6%). And even after that, the run-in to Colombier-le-Vieux still kicks up nastily in the closing kilometres.

Start: 12:05 PM (local time)
Finish: approx. 5:00 PM (local time)

Wednesday was incredibly nervous, with proper echelon warfare. Will we get more of the same? It does not look like it. The rain has stopped and the wind has eased off. It should be a lovely, if chilly, day in the sunshine.

After his superb showing on Wednesday, Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) starts as the clear top favourite. When he needs to be alert, he is— and his legs look exactly where they should be. With Juan Ayuso out of the race, Vingegaard is now alone at the top of the climbing hierarchy. Still, stage 4 made it clear just how chaotic this Paris–Nice can be. Kévin Vauquelin (INEOS Grenadiers) also looked in good shape, but he will be especially motivated to take revenge after losing time earlier in the week.

Oscar Onley will be hoping for his own response too, although he may be feeling the effects of a crash during the crosswind drama. Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) is in a similar position to Vauquelin: he missed the split in the wind and shipped a lot of time. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), on the other hand, did make the front group and eventually matched the returning climbers well. With Brandon McNulty out, UAE Team Emirates–XRG will now have to pin their hopes on Marc Soler.

Georg Steinhauser (EF Education–EasyPost) showed serious strength by chasing Vingegaard and company almost single-handedly — but can he hold that level another day? Daniel Felipe Martínez (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe) looks like the only remaining rider who can really challenge the Dane in the overall picture, and he will be keen to protect his position. Beyond that, this stage is also about the riders we have not really seen yet in the first proper climbing day.

Think Mathys Rondel (Tudor), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step) and Torstein Træen (Uno-X Mobility). Over at XDS Astana, they will hope for a strong day from Harold Tejada, while Nicolas Prodhomme will be looking to do better for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale.

Top favourite: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) Outsiders: Kévin Vauquelin (INEOS Grenadiers), Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious), Daniel Felipe Martínez (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe) and Georg Steinhauser (EF Education–EasyPost) Long shots: David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Oscar Onley (INEOS Grenadiers), Marc Soler (UAE Team Emirates–XRG), Mathys Rondel (Tudor), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step), Harold Tejada (XDS Astana), Nicolas Prodhomme (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) and Torstein Træen (Uno-X Mobility)