Favorites stage 5 Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 | With wind force 6 (!), Van der Poel gets his last chance

For the second time in this Tirreno, we will exceed the 200-kilometer mark, but that will not bother the race enthusiasts in the peloton. Day 5 offers an incredible number of opportunities for the breakaway riders, the punchers, and the GC riders. If you look closely at the profile, you will see a few flat kilometers from the starting line in Ascoli Piceno to the finish in Pergola. And that's even though there are 'only' three categorized climbs in it.

From the start, the road heads uphill before climbing and descending to the foot of the Santa Marciana after 123 kilometers of racing. This short calf-killer, 4.4 kilometers at 6.1 percent average, is the appetizer for the finale. After we have completed the intermediate sprint (uphill), we will head towards the Barbanti, which, after about 170 kilometers, rises 6.2 kilometers at 4.7 percent.

Up to this point, attackers and classics specialists will be grinning from ear to ear, but it will get tougher for them when we start the day's last climb. The Monterolo is anything but steady, shooting from gradients of around 10% over 8 kilometers to an average of 8.6% in the previous 300 meters. The official climb is 3.9 kilometers at 6.6%.

But we're not there yet because, from the top, it is another 7.5 kilometers to the finish line. That begins with an incredibly technical descent, in which we count several hairpin turns on what appears to be good asphalt. Once down, we burst into Pergola, where the finish line still has a nasty, slightly sloping incline.

Check below for the final, technical descent of the day.

Times
Start: 04:45 AM EST
Finish: around 9:45 AM EST

On Thursday, the weather was nice at the start in Ascoli Piceno, but on Friday morning, there may be a drop of rain, interrupted by periods of gentle sunshine. The temperature will rise to around 20 degrees, and we will ride north to Pergola with a strong tailwind from the south (force 4 to 5 in the first hour, reaching a maximum of force 6 in the second!).

Towards the finish in Pergola, the wind speed drops a bit, which is good because, in the last hour, we ride a technical lap around the finish. The sun seems to prevail over the 20 percent chance of rain in the final. Let's hope that is indeed the case...

As mentioned, countless riders can win on day 5 of the Tirreno. So, let's start with the usual suspects: Mathieu van der Poel. The Dutch rider from Alpecin-Deceuninck already tried on days 3 and 4. Day 5 seems to suit him even better, although the question is whether he will survive the final climb against the GC riders. Maybe a day in the breakaway is also an idea? In any case, Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) stuck by his wheel on Thursday's stage so that he won't give him much space, although it may be too tough for the Italian giant this time.

There will be more fast men who can try their luck on a long day. Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) has already won a stage and could finish it from a breakaway. But we are also thinking of Valentin Madouas (Groupama-FDJ), Magnus Cort (Uno-X), Roger Adrià (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Filippo Zana (Jayco-AlUla), Florian Stork (Tudor) and Simone Velasco (Astana). These are not riders who can drop the GC riders in a final sprint but rather riders who can finish off the attacks.

Read more below the photo.

However, we are looking at a completely different group. Can a GC team keep it together and go for stage wins (and gain some time) in the difficult final? UAE Team Emirates has Juan Ayuso in their ranks and Adam Yates as a wild card. Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) looks strong, EF Education-EasyPost already rode aggressively with Richard Carapaz and Ben Healy, and of course, we have Tom Pidcock, who is in the form of his life at Q36.5 and might be able to seize the opportunity in the descent?

Are there other GC contenders who could participate and win the stage? Romain Gregoire is one of them for Groupama-FDJ, and keep an eye on Giulio Ciccone for Lidl-Trek and Marc Hirschi for Tudor. Strong men like Laurens De Plus (INEOS), Jai Hindley (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma | Lease a Bike), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) and Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana) may be less explosive in a sprint. They may have to arrive solo if they want to win.  

Top favorites:Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) and Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Outsiders: Marc Hirschi (Tudor), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Romain Gregoire (Groupama-FDJ) and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)
Long Shots: Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Laurens De Plus (INEOS Grenadiers), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers), Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost), Roger Adrià (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Magnus Cort (Uno-X) and Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])