Favorites stage 7 Giro d'Italia 2025 | Will Roglic want to seize power already, or will it be up to the escapees?

Stage seven is set to ignite right from the start in Castel di Sangro. The climb to Roccaraso may not be long or steep but the road rises from the gun with the summit coming after just 7.4 kilometers. Roccaraso is no stranger to the Giro having hosted a stage finish back in 2020 when Ruben Guerreiro took the win. This time the riders will have another 160 kilometers to tackle after the top and they are anything but easy.

Even after the categorized climb the road continues with a series of sharp ups and downs. In those first 20 kilometers there could be a big fight to get in the break. If the GC teams aren’t too eager to take responsibility this early the breakaway might be given some freedom. After the opening section the route descends toward Pratola Peligna before heading back uphill again. But not before an intermediate sprint in Sulmona. Will a sprinter dare to tag along for those points?

Once the riders hit the valley they begin the ascent to Monte Urano. This one is quite tough at 4.6 kilometers with an average gradient of 9.2 percent. From there they head straight to the longest climb of the day, the Vado della Forcella. This two-stepped ascent runs 21.5 kilometers at 3.6 percent on average including a short descent in the middle. Both climbs are categorized as second-category and with the final climb included there are 95 KOM points up for grabs, 50 of which are waiting at the finish line. A big opportunity for anyone chasing the Maglia Azzurra.

The final section kicks off with the Red Bull Kilometer, the intermediate sprint offering bonus seconds. It sits 10 kilometers from the line at the base of the final climb but whether anyone will want to light things up there remains to be seen. The final climb to Tagliacozzo doesn’t look too intimidating on paper at 11.9 kilometers and 5.6 percent.

But it’s the last 2.6 kilometers where things get serious. That stretch averages 9.1 percent with ramps as steep as 13 percent. A perfect launchpad for explosive climbers with a strong kick. The road surface won’t help either. It’s rough and narrow more like a goat track you’d expect in the Vuelta a España. There’s none of the smooth tarmac the Giro is usually known for.

Climbs
7.8 km - Roccaraso (7.8 km at 5.8%)
70.5 km - Monte Urano (4.6 km at 9.2%)
106 km - Vado della Forcella (21.5 km at 3.6%)
168 km - Roccaraso (11.9 km at 5.6%)

Times
Start: 12:55 p.m.
Finish: around 5:10 p.m.

No early-summer sunshine in Italy today. At the start in Castel di Sangro, it’s expected to stay dry, but temperatures will barely reach 12°C (54°F). It won’t warm up much during the day, and showers could move in during the afternoon. Conditions at the finish in Tagliacozzo look even worse, with the potential for thunderstorms. Riders will be hoping for a break in the weather, but all signs point to a rough day on the bike.

With the first summit finish on the horizon, all eyes are naturally on the overall contenders. But climbers with a strong finishing kick are also in with a real chance here. The final climb isn’t too tough, so we could very well see a reduced group sprint among the GC men. And who’s beating Primoz Roglic in that scenario? The Slovenian has already shown he’s in great shape and is the clear favorite for this type of finish.

Next up on the list is Juan Ayuso. On paper he may not be as fast as Roglic, but the UAE rider did beat him earlier this year in the Volta a Catalunya. Another strong finisher is Giulio Ciccone. The Lidl Trek rider is looking better than ever and has already won on similar finishes. And don’t count out Richard Carapaz, who in top form can win even on less demanding climbs.

At Visma | Lease a Bike there’s quiet confidence in the improving form of Simon Yates. If he’s feeling good, a finish like this should suit him well. His fellow Brit Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) is targeting stage wins and may have his eyes more on the transitional stages, but if he’s still in the mix near the end, he could be one of the hardest to beat. And how about Michael Storer? The Australian from Tudor impressed in the time trial and suddenly showed a punchy sprint in stage five. Nothing seems off the table for the small climber.

At UAE Team Emirates XRG, there’s depth beyond just Ayuso. Adam Yates shares leadership, while Isaac Del Toro and Jay Vine are also dangerous on this kind of terrain. INEOS Grenadiers will be hoping for something special from Egan Bernal or Thymen Arensman, although both typically shine more in the high mountains. Max Poole (Picnic PostNL) and Derek Gee (Israel Premier Tech) also have a sneaky strong finish. Einer Rubio from Movistar has flown under the radar this spring but has looked solid so far in this Giro.

Whether the big GC names will truly come into play depends mostly on the race for the pink jersey. Roglic is currently sitting second overall and looks like the obvious candidate to take over from Mads Pedersen. But if he decides not to go for pink just yet, there’s a real chance the breakaway could make it to the line. And why not Wout Poels? The XDS Astana rider is in peak form and this type of finish suits him perfectly. Mountains classification leader Lorenzo Fortunato has already shown his aggressive mindset, along with Bahrain Victorious rider Pello Bilbao.

His teammate Christian Scaroni is another strong candidate, having already impressed earlier this spring. Romain Bardet will be looking for a result in what may be his final Grand Tour, and if he gets the nod from the team, he could be in the mix. Team Polti VisitMalta may also see an opening and will be hoping for a big ride from the Bais brothers, Mattia and Davide. Israel Premier Tech has Derek Gee, but also Marco Frigo, who made a big impression in the Tour of the Alps. The same goes for AG2R’s Nicolas Prodhomme, who won a stage there and is clearly in shape.

Top favorite:Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Outsiders:Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5), Michael Storer (Tudor), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Wout Poels (XDS-Astana), Marco Frigo (Israel - Premier Tech) and Romain Bardet (Picnic PostNL)
Longshots: Simon Yates (Visma | Lease a Bike), Max Poole (Picnic PostNL), Richard Carapaz (EF Education - EasyPost), Christian Scaroni (XDS-Astana), Nicolas Prodhomme (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Davide Bais (Polti VisitMalta), Isaac Del Toro (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)