Nibali warns Vingegaard ahead of Tour of Italy: 'The Giro, more than the Tour, demands surprises'

It was Jonas Vingegaard's long-cherished wish to ride the Giro d'Italia and in 2026 that wish will become reality. The Dane of Visma | Lease a Bike will have the chance to win the third of the three grand tours, but Vincenzo Nibali is not counting him rich too soon. The Italian warns against surprises, but also sees opportunities in view of the Tour.

Visma | Lease a Bike isn't running away from the fact that they have the top favorite in Italy, but Nibali doesn't want to mince words on that just yet. 'It is still too early to say, but Vingegaard has certainly chosen the right moment to make his debut, having won the Vuelta and the two Tours. And the Giro, compared to the Spanish grand tour, suits him better,' Gazzetta echoes.

That, according to the Italian, who won the Giro twice, has several reasons. 'Not so much because of the weather: he may be Danish, the Giro is cooler than the Vuelta, but he has always performed well in the high temperatures of July in the Tour. The main reason lies in the technical characteristics of the climbs in the Giro.'

Nibali explains. 'They are less 'explosive' than those of the Vuelta, which, although tough, are generally not as long as the Italian ones. In the last week of this year, there are at least three stages with perfect climbs for Vingegaard,' the Italian predicts a course tailored to the Dane.

Still, it will be different for Vingegaard than in the other major tours, Nibali believes. 'A possible difficulty is that he will face rain more often: in May, during the Giro, that can happen. I had advised him to ride a few warm-up races in Italy to regain 'confidence' in our road surface, which he has not experienced since the 2024 Tirreno-Adriatico, which he also won.'

Vingegaard opted for a different preparation. 'I saw that he is racing in February, in the UAE Tour, and in March the Tour of Catalonia. So ... I would take the time to do some research locally on the most important days, the most crucial climbs. Since he is also taking part in the Tour, he probably didn't want to overfill his schedule, and that's fine.'

The main competition in the Giro will likely come from UAE, in the form of João Almeida. 'But the Giro, even more than the Tour, demands surprises. It was the same in 2025: you might have expected Del Toro to be strong, but who would have seen him at the beginning of the tour competing for the pink jersey until the penultimate stage?', Nibali also warns of other competitors.

Question is: how will Vingegaard plan his Giro? 'If he can make the difference in a few early stages, he will definitely try,' Nibali expects. 'If you look at the course, you see that the Blockhaus stage in the first week is incredibly tough. In the Vuelta, Jonas already won the second stage...'

Should the Visma star win the Giro, Nibali sees advantages for this summer's Tour. 'The change of plans will give him new motivation, which is normal. If he wins the Giro, he could be mentally freer to challenge Tadej. In any case, it is good that he has decided to throw himself into the fray. Especially since one-day races, judging from what we've seen so far, are not really his style.'

Giro victory or not, Nibali is a big fan of Vingegaard. The Shark of Messina explains why. 'Besides his climbing skills, he is also known for his aversion to the spotlight and his private life. In that respect, I see myself a little bit in him. Although I was less reserved and sometimes enjoyed teasing my rivals. It was a kind of psychological game.'