No breakaway glory on Tour de France Stage 3? Eurosport analysts see an 'ideal scenario' for UAE

Visma | Lease a Bike struck first in the Tour de France with a victory in the team time trial, but one day later, UAE Team Emirates-XRG countered with an incredible one-two finish in Barcelona. Eurosport commentators Jan Hermsen and Bobbie Traksel see a rock-solid duo on the UAE team, and think it’s even possible they’ll strike again as early as this Monday.

Isaac Del Toro won the second stage, but Tadej Pogacar made a great impression in second place. He was the only one with the legs to keep up with the Mexican. Jonas Vingegaard is still wearing the yellow jersey after two days, even though his longtime rival has closed the gap.

According to Traksel, Pogacar’s decision not to win was a tactical one. “He could have easily taken the yellow jersey, but he wants one thing: to keep Del Toro as his best friend for the rest of the Tour,” he explains in Kop over Kop. “But if he’d gone all out, he really would have gained another two seconds on Vingegaard and picked up those ten bonus seconds. But he was fine with it. Let Vingegaard go to those press conferences for just one more day.”

"I think Pogacar might even let Del Toro take the yellow jersey in the coming days," Hermsen elaborates, though he does add a caveat. “I think that’s a bit dangerous. Look at Hinault and Lemond: once you’ve got the yellow jersey on your shoulders, don’t you start believing in it yourself a little? I think it’s a nice gift, but you shouldn’t give out too many gifts.”

On Monday, a 196-kilometer stage with nearly 4,000 meters of elevation gain is on the schedule, but it never gets truly high, long, or steep. Many breakaway riders therefore sense an opportunity. According to Traksel, UAE Team Emirates-XRG won’t launch its mission to secure the yellow jersey for Pogacar or Del Toro until later. “Will UAE take control right away? Because then they could have grabbed the yellow jersey right away,” he says, referring to the second stage.

Hermsen, however, doesn’t see just any breakaway rider winning. “A mediocre rider isn’t going to win here. A strong rider is going to win—someone who might even finish in the top ten. You’re not going to give that rider a big lead. If someone has a one-and-a-half-minute lead with forty kilometers to go, why not just let McNulty lead out and let Del Toro take his second win? It’s an ideal scenario.”

In the second stage, there were only three riders in the breakaway, but Traksel hopes there will be more enthusiasm now. He’s frustrated by the passivity of the other top teams. “Which team wins if no one goes on the breakaway? UAE! All those other teams need to attack, but they don’t! Just like today, everyone just chases along behind until Pogacar makes his move. Now that Pogacar isn’t going, Del Toro will win.”