Tom Dumoulin: "Tour de France opening stage inherently too grueling for Van der Poel"

Do classic riders like Mathieu van der Poel stand a chance at the first yellow jersey? "No," Tom Dumoulin says on the podcast In het Wiel. "The general classification teams will be so nervous and ride so hard because of that nervousness, making the stage inherently too grueling for Van der Poel. I also don't think he's set his sights on it. It's too tough."

According to the former rider, Van der Poel doesn't need to. "I would pick my days, but not get involved in the last week. Just find the grupetto and recover. I think that’s the way to excel at the Olympics. He has specialized more in classic races. He hasn’t necessarily become a better climber over the years. It’s often all or nothing. That's what I love. He can strike so powerfully and win beautifully, but sometimes he’s also invisible."

"If he wins a stage, preferably the one in Troyes, and then contributes two or three times to Philipsen's stage wins, rides invisibly for the rest of the Tour and then becomes a glorious Olympic champion, that would be a fantastic scenario," Dumoulin lays out a possible scenario. "And without a Tour stage? If he still becomes Olympic champion, he would definitely sign up for that."

Then there's the team from UAE-Team Emirates, which Dumoulin describes as "unreal". All noses must point in the same direction. "There’s only one king in that team and one king in cycling at the moment. That's Tadej Pogacar. Marketing-wise, it also doesn't help them if Almeida gets into a break, takes three minutes, and wins the Tour. With all due respect to Almeida, of course, but they benefit much more if Pogacar wins."

And what about his major rival, Jonas Vingegaard? "He will only be at the start if he believes, deep down inside, that he has a chance of winning. If he is absolutely certain: I am far from good enough, can maybe snatch a stage win, and finish twelfth in the general classification, then Vingegaard won’t go to the Tour. He knows, of course, that the chances are not great, but I think he will start with the ambition to win. And that's how the team will race."