Zonneveld: “UAE will not attack with Del Toro; the risk of him winning is too great”

It was perhaps the most beautiful race—or rather, the most beautiful finale of a race—of the entire spring: Milan-Sanremo. A thrilling duel between Van der Poel and Pogacar unfolded on the Cipressa and the Poggio, with Filippo Ganna also making his presence felt in the background. According to Zonneveld, we can expect a similar scenario this year as well.

“In 95% of the scenarios, either Pogacar breaks away alone or Van der Poel wins in a sprint between the two, with perhaps a third rider joining them, like Ganna did last year. The other five percent is simply that they neutralize each other and everything comes together,” predicts the analyst.

Still, Zonneveld emphasizes that this wasn't always the case in La Primavera. ‘At first, this was the classic where almost anyone could win. Sprinters could win, classic specialists could win—everyone actually had a chance. Now it's basically a race where only two people can win.’

The Dutchman points to a clear culprit for this development. “It’s all Pogacar’s fault. He’s the one who ramped up the pace on the Cipressa so much. To win, Pogacar needs to cover the Cipressa in under nine minutes.” Something that already happened in 2025, leaving only three riders at the finish line.

The scenario in which Pogacar wins therefore seems to be fully mapped out, which works to Van der Poel’s advantage. ‘Van der Poel knows exactly where Pogacar will go, on the steepest section of the Cipressa. Van der Poel is very capable of staying on his wheel and accelerating. It’s also not that steep, so Van der Poel benefits greatly from staying right on his wheel; on the Cipressa, it really comes down to raw power,’ concludes Zonneveld.

Moreover, he is not convinced by Pogacar’s team. ‘The most important thing is that the team is positioned right at the front for the climb, but I don’t believe that both Jan Christen and Isaac del Toro are in good positions.’ A scenario like last year’s is also ideal for Van der Poel. ‘Pogacar is the ideal ally. He “only” has to follow Pogacar, and then he’ll probably beat him.’

Zonneveld does emphasize that conditions on Saturday could be ideal for the Slovenian. ‘The wind is perfect, he’s in superb form, and he knows what needs to be done.’ Still, the analyst isn’t ready to jump on the bandwagon of those claiming the world champion will win Sanremo sooner or later. ‘Everyone says that, but he’s so dependent on Van der Poel’s condition.’

Finally, the Dutchman sees one other scenario for a possible UAE victory. ‘They could also use Del Toro to attack in turns.’ Though he doesn’t see this as a realistic option. ‘Then the risk is too great that Del Toro will win, and UAE isn’t here for a team victory, but to win with Pogacar.’