Analysts not convinced of INEOS' and Onley's chances in the Tour: 'Don't see him getting third'

In 2024, INEOS Grenadiers hit a low point, finishing eighth on the UCI World Ranking. The team really had to improve, and in 2025 they’ve somewhat clawed their way back with aggressive racing. They picked up three stage wins at the Vuelta a España, two at the Tour de France, and one at the Giro d’Italia — not bad at all.

According to Bobbie Traksel, pressure from main sponsor INEOS has increased. “Now they’ve said: ‘We are top, and if we’re not top, we don’t want to be part of it anymore. So if I were you I’d show very quickly that you can win the Tour de France, because otherwise they’ll pull the plug.’” But winning the Tour looks extremely difficult, especially with Tadej Pogacar still in the picture.

Jeroen Vanbelleghem even calls it impossible with the current roster. “They should forget about that with this selection. Maybe someone who can one day win the Giro or Vuelta, but I doubt that as well. And I mean Onley first and foremost, not Vauquelin — he still comes up short in the high mountains. You can always dream, but like Marco sang: ‘Most dreams are deception.’”

Vauquelin and Onley have been added to a lineup that already includes Egan Bernal, Thymen Arensman, and Josh Tarling. It’s not a bad group — but Vanbelleghem isn’t convinced. “Which big WorldTour race can they win with this core? Name one.”

The Arensman case is one that Eurosport pundits discuss as well. He won two stages in the Tour de France and has finished as high as fifth at the Vuelta. Given his age, the Dutch climber could definitely be a dangerous customer for strong GC results in the future. But if INEOS wants to win the Tour, Traksel argues it shouldn’t be with him.

“If Arensman is going to ride for GC… I’ve never seen that in the Tour,” says the former pro. “Of course, he’s ridden super well, but the same situation wouldn’t happen with a Del Toro at UAE — that guy then wins those stages. In other Grand Tours he could ride top-10 and even near the top-5, but stepping onto a podium is still a very big leap.”

Vanbelleghem hopes the Brits will focus less on the Tour and more on races where they can score standout results. “Onley finished fourth in the Tour this year. In my opinion, he can’t do better than that given the start list. I don’t see him third in that field. So wouldn’t it be more enjoyable to go for a podium in another Grand Tour?”