Favorites stage 4 Paris–Nice 2026 | Crosswind threat before Vingegaard and Ayuso’s first uphill showdown

Stage 4 brings the first uphill finish of this year’s Paris–Nice, but the final climb is far from the only obstacle on the route. The opening half of the stage is almost completely flat, before the peloton reaches the Côte de la Croix des Cerisiers, a climb of 6.2 kilometres at 4.3 percent. That is only the beginning, because in the final 25 kilometres the riders still have to deal with two more classified climbs.

First comes the Côte de la Croix de la Libération, which rises for 4.6 kilometres at 5.3 percent. After that, the riders descend towards the final ascent. On paper, the first-category climb to Uchon may not look especially threatening, with an average gradient of 4.5 percent, but appearances can be deceptive. The climb is highly irregular, and the final two kilometres kick up to well over 10 percent in places. That should make for a punchy, explosive finish.

Start: 12:25 PM local time
Finish: approximately 4:45 PM local time

The weather gods do not look kindly on the riders for Wednesday’s stage. Rain is forecast for almost the entire day, while there is also expected to be enough side wind on the flat opening section to keep everyone nervous. All in all, it looks set to be a wet, tense and potentially chaotic day before the race even reaches the decisive climb.

With the first uphill finish of the race on the menu, everything points to the GC riders wanting to show themselves. That naturally makes Jonas Vingegaard one of the standout names at the start. The two-time Tour de France winner has not yet needed his pure climbing legs this season, but this finish should offer a first real test. Visma | Lease a Bike will also hope Davide Piganzoli and Wilco Kelderman can support the Dane deep into the finale. Visma | Lease a Bike should also be highly motivated after their somewhat disappointing outcome in the team time trial, where Ayuso still managed to take more time on Vingegaard in the individual classification. That only adds extra weight to Wednesday’s first mountain-style finish.

The rider who has already shown plenty uphill this season is race leader Juan Ayuso. The Spaniard claimed the Volta ao Algarve earlier in the year and has made an excellent start to life with Lidl-Trek. With his sharp finishing kick, Ayuso could certainly make life difficult for Vingegaard on the slopes of Uchon. The time he already gained on his Danish rival should also have given him a valuable psychological boost heading into this stage.

Beyond the two main favorites, it is hard to ignore the strength in depth of INEOS Grenadiers. The British team has three genuine cards to play in Oscar Onley, Kévin Vauquelin and Carlos Rodríguez. Both Onley and Vauquelin have already come up short against Ayuso on uphill finishes this season, but they remain dangerous on a climb like this. Rodríguez, meanwhile, was dropped early in the team time trial won by INEOS, although that victory should still have boosted morale inside the team.

Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe also arrive with a strong hand. Aleksandr Vlasov and Daniel Felipe Martínez both have the kind of uphill acceleration that can matter on an irregular finish, and Martínez in particular tends to thrive once the gradients hit double digits. Thanks to a solid team time trial, both men are still well placed in the overall standings too.

Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe also has a strong team. With Alexander Vlasov and Daniel Felipe Martinez, they have two leaders with considerable finishing power. The Colombian in particular comes into his own when the gradients exceed 10%. After a solid team time trial, the duo is also well placed in the general classification.

The same goes for occasional leader Brandon McNulty. In the absence of João Almeida, the UAE rider is suddenly the team's spearhead and should be able to handle these climbs well, although the American normally prefers more regular climbs. In addition to McNulty, UAE also has another option in Marc Soler.

Another rider who has some time to make up after the team time trial in stage three is Lenny Martinez. However, the Frenchman should be able to handle this climb well and has already shown his strong climbing legs in the Ardèche classics. Other contenders for the general classification include Harold Tejada (XDS Astana), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), and Iván Romeo (Movistar).

If the GC contenders are not up for it due to the bad weather, there is always a chance for the attackers. In that scenario, we think of riders such as Nicolas Prodhomme (Decathlon CMA CGM), Torstein Traen (Uno-X), Mathys Rondel (Tudor) or Eddie Dunbar (Q36.5). The Movistar duo Pablo Castrillo and Raúl García Pierna could also do well on this course, but the latter may still be too low in the general classification.

Top favorites: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek)
Outsiders: Oscar Onley and Kévin Vauquelin (INEOS Grenadiers), Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious)
Long shots: Daniel Felipe Martínez and Aleksandr Vlasov (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe), Iván Romeo (Movistar), Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers)