Favorites for stage 15 of the Giro d'Italia 2023 | Who will best conquer the Lombardian hills?

This Sunday, the stage starts in Seregno, a city located about twenty kilometers northwest of Milan. The road immediately starts ascending, and fairly early on in the race, the first categorized climb of the day appears. The climb to Valico di Valcava is a first-category climb, stretching 11.6 kilometers at an average gradient of 8 percent.

After a relatively long descent and a stretch through the valley, the riders face the climb to Selvino (11.1 kilometers at 5.6 percent). Once they reach the top and start the descent, there is little time to truly enjoy and rest. Indeed, pretty soon they have to conquer the climb towards Miragolo San Salvatore as well (5.2 kilometers at 7 percent).

After an intermediate section of about forty kilometers, the final official climb of the day rounds up the cycling menu of this fifteenth stage. The road heads towards Roncola Alta, ascending for approximately ten kilometers with an average gradient of 6.7 percent. Anyone who thinks that the climbing ends there will be in for a surprise. The riders descend towards the Brembo river. Once they cross the river, they set course for Bergamo, one of the oldest cities in Lombardy.

To reach the Città Alta (the old city), the riders must conquer the Colle Aperto during the final section of the race. At certain points, the road surface of this one-and-a-half-kilometer climb is paved with cobblestones and has an average gradient of 7.9 percent. Once they reach the top, there's a three-kilometer descent towards the finish line. Despite the technical nature of the final five kilometers, the section leading to the actual finish line is straightforward.

Start: 11:55 AM

Finish: approximately 5:15 PM

When it comes to meteorological conditions, this Giro d'Italia has not exactly gone smoothly. The riders seem to be treated solely to heavy downpours of rain. On Sunday, the outlook appears slightly more favorable, as the chance of rain in the afternoon is 'only' forty to fifty percent. However, don't be surprised if it still pours down from the sky! In terms of temperature, the riders have no reason to complain. On Sunday afternoon, the temperature will rise to around 25 degrees Celsius.

Predicting similar stages is typically a very difficult task. Will the general classification contenders finally make a move, or will they once again keep a low profile and leave the battle for the stage victory to the escape artists? At first glance, considering the past race days, it seems that the baroudeurs have the best chance. Bruno Armirail (Groupama-FDJ) took over the pink jersey from Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers) in stage fourteen, but it is likely that the French team will let any escapees who are already far behind in the overall standings ride freely.

For the top favorites, we are looking for men who can handle hills well, have a good amount of punch in their legs, and are also placed well in the overall standings. One name that likely comes to mind for many cycling enthusiasts is Ben Healy. The Irishman from EF Education-Easypost already added an impressive solo victory in the eighth stage of the Giro to his palmares and the course of the fifteenth stage seems to be to his liking once again. In the spring classics, as well as in several Giro stages, he has already demonstrated that he has the explosiveness required for such routes.

Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates) and Lorenzo Fortunato (EOLO-Kometa) also seem to be capable of performing well. Vine is usually a strong climber and already finds himself at a considerable distance in the overall standings. However, there are some doubts as to the Aussie's form after his crash and about his role within the team. Fortunato would probably prefer a true mountain stage. Nevertheless, the Italian is a good contender as he has shown himself to be active in various hilly stages on multiple occasions.

Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates) is another rider who frequently launches attacks. So far, the American has not achieved any significant top results. Who knows, on the way to Bergamo, he might finally succeed in being part of the right breakaway, and perform strongly from that position. The same goes for Italian champion Filippo Zana (Team Jayco-Alula). Davide Formolo joined the early breakaway in stage twelve but couldn't turn it into an uplifting final result. In Lombardy, the man whose determination is always evident on his face gets a new opportunity on a course that seems tailored to his strengths. Michael Matthews (Team Jayco-AlUla) is typically a solid climbing sprinter who also possesses a good punch. If he manages to make it into the leading group, 'Bling' is always among the favorites on such a course.

Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) knows what it takes to win the Tour of Lombardy. The Dutch fan favorite claimed victory in the Italian race in 2019 and should therefore be well-suited to the challenges presented in stage fifteen. However, his form does not seem to be at its best. But as is often the case, you never know! We should also consider Trek-Segafredo's ultra-active Toms Skujins. The Latvian rider has repeatedly shown himself at the front and appears to be in good shape. He finished sixth in stage fourteen and even took second place in stage twelve. Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) also knows what it's like to win the Tour of Lombardy, having added the Monument to his palmares in 2019. His team now has the pink jersey rider, so it remains to be seen how the tactical choices will unfold in that respect.

Finally, we'd like to mention a few more contenders. We wouldn't be surprised if Vincenzo Albanese (EOLO-Kometa), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Soudal Quick-Step youngster Ilan Van Wilder, Koen Bouwman (Jumbo-Visma), Giro revelation Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), Aurélien Paret-Peintre (AG2R Citroën Team), Patrick Konrad (BORA-hansgrohe), Magnus Cort (EF Education-EasyPost), Lorenzo Rota (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty) or Will Barta (Movistar) crossed the finish line in celebration. If it does turn into a battle among the general classification contenders, we should keep an eye on the usual suspects Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers), Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma), Joao Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) and Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious).

Top favorites: Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost), Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates), Lorenzo Fortunato (EOLO-Kometa)

Shadow favorites: Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates), Michael Matthews (Team Jayco-AlUla), Filippo Zana (Team Jayco-AlUla), Davide Formolo (UAE Team Emirates), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious)

Longshots: Toms Skujins (Trek-Segafredo), Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), Vincenzo Albanese (EOLO-Kometa), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) Aurélien Paret-Peintre (AG2R Citroën Team), Ilan van Wilder (Soudal Quick-Step), Koen Bouwman (Jumbo-Visma), Patrick Konrad (BORA-hansgrohe), Magnus Cort (EF Education-EasyPost), Lorenzo Rota (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Will Barta (Movistar), Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers), Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma), Joao Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) and Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious)

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