Favorites points classification Tour de France 2025 | If you can go for yellow, you can go for green too, right?
CyclingThursday, 26 June 2025 at 15:26
As everyone knows, there are points to be earned at the finish line of each stage for the green jersey, the so-called sprinter's jersey. Though in 2025, a puncheur or even a general classification contender could very well end up taking home that jersey. IDLProCycling.com outlines the biggest favorites!
To regulate the points classification, the Tour organization divides the stages into six categories based on difficulty. Categories 1 and 2 are, on paper, the easiest stages, where the stage winner can earn up to 50 points toward the green jersey. Category 3 includes hilly stages or those with a summit finish, like the Mont Ventoux stage, which also fall under this category. In those, 30 points are available for the winner.
Categories 4 and 5 cover tough mountain stages with significant elevation, where 20 points go to the stage winner. Category 6 (individual time trials) is similar. Intermediate sprints award the same amount of points in every stage, and the organization accommodates pure sprinters by placing those sprints just before the climbs in mountain stages.
In total, eleven stages have been classified as Category 1 or 2. These include the opening stage in Lille, the second stage finishing in Boulogne-sur-Mer (with a final kilometer at more than 5%), stage 4 to Rouen (with five categorized climbs in the finale), and even stage 6 finishing on the Mur-de-Bretagne: 2 kilometers at 6.9%.
These are generally stages where the likes of Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert have an advantage over pure sprinters like Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier and Jasper Philipsen. Stage 8 to Laval, stage 10 in Toulouse, day 15 toward Carcassonne, and the final stage with multiple climbs of Montmartre also offer puncheurs a shot at 50 points, so we’re set for an exciting battle!
Read more below the photo!
Also available on IDLProCycling.com (or coming soon):
- Preview Tour de France 2025
- Favorites mountain classification (polka dot jersey)
- Favorites youth classification (white jersey)
- Pool tips Tour de France
Most recent winners of points standings Tour de France
2024 Biniam Girmay
2023 Jasper Philipsen
2022 Wout van Aert
2021 Mark Cavendish
2020 Sam Bennett
2019 Peter Sagan
2018 Peter Sagan
2017 Michael Matthews
2016 Peter Sagan
2015 Peter Sagan
2015 Peter Sagan
Favorites points classification Tour de France 2025
To create this list, (former) editors of IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten picks in response to the question: “Who has the best shot at winning the points classification in the Tour de France?” Each top ten entry was awarded points: 12 for 1st place, 10 for 2nd, then 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point respectively. The total points per rider were converted into a percentage of the maximum possible points and are listed accordingly, giving you a clearer picture of how IDLProCycling.com thinks the favorites stack up!
10. Emilien Jeanniere - TotalEnergies
One thing you can set your watch by: smaller French teams are always eager to rank high in the points classification. Few may remember, but last year Anthony Turgis finished fifth in the green jersey standings for TotalEnergies.
This year, the team is bringing debutant Emilien Jeanniere, who’s been steadily making a name for himself. Since early 2024, he's been piling up top finishes and already claimed five pro wins, mostly at a slightly lower level, but in 2025 he’s delivered in races like Paris-Nice, Critérium du Dauphiné and most recently the Copenhagen Sprint. Jeanniere also climbs well.
9. Bryan Coquard - Cofidis
Another one of those guys you can count on to rank high in the green jersey standings if he reaches Paris: Bryan Coquard for Cofidis. 'Le Coq' has completed the Tour six times, and every time, he finished in the top six of the points classification. Both in his debut year (2014) and in 2023 and 2024, he came in third.
Coquard scores most of his points in intermediate sprints. Unlike many sprinters, he constantly fights for those. Despite a strong start at the Tour Down Under, this season hasn't gone smoothly for the fast man who can also handle hills well.
8. Filippo Ganna - INEOS Grenadiers
He can time trial, punch, and (if he wants to) sprint: Filippo Ganna might not be the first name that comes to mind for the green jersey, but there’s a real chance he ends up high in the rankings with a consistent series of results over three weeks.
Ganna is mainly targeting the first week and a half of the Tour, and has prepared specifically for it. In races like Milan-San Remo and the spring Classics, he was among the few who could follow Pogacar and Van der Poel on the climbs. That bodes well for the punchy stages in the first week. He likely won’t contest real bunch sprints. Not ideal in terms of risk vs. reward.
7. Biniam Girmay - Intermarché-Wanty
Last season, almost no one considered Biniam Girmay a top favorite for green, yet the Eritrean ended up with multiple stage wins and also took the green jersey home. A massive success for him and his team. But they haven’t been able to build on that momentum so far in 2025.
Girmay hasn’t taken a win since July last year. The Eritrean does have an advantage over many sprinters when the road tilts uphill, but even for him, some of the early Tour stages might be right on the limit. That said, his recent high-altitude training block back home in Eritrea could make all the difference...
6. Mathieu van der Poel - Alpecin-Deceuninck
What about Van der Poel’s green jersey ambitions? If the Dutchman ever wants to go for it, this seems like the year. Of course, his teammate Jasper Philipsen is also racing, which complicates things. But Van der Poel could still collect points in a supporting role. Similar to how Christophe Laporte did in 2022 for Van Aert, dragging the lead-out deep into the sprint, and picking up points along the way.
He actually went for green recently at the Critérium du Dauphiné, narrowly losing out to Pogacar. Still, it’s hard to say what his exact goals for the Tour will be. The mountain bike World Championships are coming up in September, and Van der Poel is known for being selective.
5. Wout van Aert - Visma | Lease a Bike
Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) has always been more about ticking boxes than chasing trophies or big wins. He already has a green jersey from a previous Tour hanging on the wall in his home in Herentals, Belgium. But with Jonas Vingegaard aiming for yellow, it’s still unclear what Van Aert will focus on in the upcoming Tour.
That said, the course suits him perfectly. There are plenty of chances to rack up points across a wide range of stages. For now, stage wins seem to be the main focus. But if things go well, green could come along as a natural byproduct of that.
4. Tadej Pogacar - UAE Emirates-XRG
Tadej Pogacar as a contender for the green jersey? Absolutely! The Slovenian from UAE Emirates-XRG is the biggest all-round threat in the peloton, and green is the only Tour jersey he hasn’t won yet. He’ll be targeting those punchy finishes in week one. With his climbing ability, he has a big advantage over most of the names on this list.
Green may not be his stated goal from stage one in Lille, but Pogacar is so dominant that he tends to finish high in the standings anyway. He’s been top five in the points classification each of the last three years. With the updated scoring system for 2025, he’s even better positioned to have a try at it.
3. Tim Merlier - Soudal Quick-Step
Based on 2025 results, Soudal Quick-Step's Tim Merlier is the top pick for flat stage finishes. The Belgian is in incredible form, with ten victories under his belt already this season. That automatically puts him high on our list for the green jersey. But until now, Merlier has never made the points classification a real goal in his career.
Whether that changes this year - especially with Remco Evenepoel on the team - is still uncertain. Like Bert Van Lerberghe, Merlier will also help position the team’s top climbers. He’s always been more focused on stage wins than jerseys. Still, if he gets off to a strong start, he could go far in the green race.
2. Jasper Philipsen-Alpecin-Deceunick
There’s still a lot of uncertainty about the green jersey ambitions of guys like Van der Poel, Pogacar and Van Aert. For now, that gives an edge to riders who are true sprinters, such as Jasper Philipsen. Just like in previous years, he’ll have a full lead-out train working for him, and that’s a huge asset in the fight for points.
Despite crashing and being disqualified in the first week last year, he still managed to finish second in the points classification, after winning it the year before. On top of that, Philipsen is a solid Classics rider and climbs well enough to survive tougher stages. All in all, he’s once again a top-tier favorite for green.
1. Jonathan Milan - Lidl-Trek
Based on the past few months, Tim Merlier is the sprinter of 2025. However, Jonathan Milan, riding for Lidl-Trek, isn’t far behind. The German-American team is going all-in on the Italian sprint powerhouse for this Tour, even leaving Mads Pedersen at home to make Milan their clear leader. That alone shows just how serious they are about their strategy.
Milan won the points classification in each of his last two Giros and has racked up quite a collection of jerseys over the years thanks to his powerful sprinting. Last year, title sponsor Lidl already aimed to position itself as the green supermarket during the Tour, but that plan was derailed by Pedersen’s crash. Will they succeed in pulling it off with Milan in 2025?
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Latest Comments
- Maybe I was a bit disrespectful to Heiden. What he did was unique and exceptional but he wasn't the only one who combined those distances, nowadays it is just not possible and nobody competes in both distances. The same is true for cycling with for example the combination of Roubaix and de Tour de France. In Merckx era there were more riders who managed a top10 in both races than currently.Joostmehrtens19-06-2025
- Two old men shouting at pigeons in the park…JonS16-06-2025
- Out of touch old men hankering after their youth through rose tinted spectacles, their arrogance almost outshines their irrelevance. Turn the volume down, this modern stuff just isn't music like we used to sing...johnny20whales16-06-2025
- In talking speed skating, the days when Heiden did that, nobody else did that. And Eddy couldn't do the equivalent of the bike. His 200 on the velodrome was good, but not world competitive for gold. Heiden was in his own world on the ice, moreso than Eddy if we pretend Eric didn't have a very short career on the ice.Veganpotter16-06-2025
- They wouldn't have dropped HIM so easily.... the GOAT. They would have dropped the rest from that era easily thoughVeganpotter16-06-2025
- Merckx was able to win in a break away on a flat (sprinters) stage, what do you mean they did not drop that easily in his time. Vlaeminck won in the mountains and the classics, but now you need to specialise. The days that a Eric Heiden could win the sprint and the 10k and everything in between are long gone and cycljng is no differentJoostmehrtens16-06-2025
- Carsapaz and Del torro were not capable of chasing Yates. They paused and looked at each other because they didn't have it in them. Yates had kept his powder dry waiting for this stage and demolished both of them. They lost Yates won. Your second guessing is utter nonsense., if either felt they could close Yates down they would have , just like they did countless times for other riders. They blew up , Yates excelled.Uphillbilly05-06-2025
- Carapaz is full of it. He is absolutely irrelevant after a rant at del Toro. Isaac had no obligations to do anything for Carapaz. It should remind one of the saying that goes lke this: "If I jump off the bridge, are you going to jump too?" If Caapaz wanted to win the Giro he should have chased Yates with or without Isaac. And if del Toro could follow, then so be it. But it was Carapaz's choice to slow down and stare at Isaac. Isaac was on the radio at times and you can bet he was being told by the Team car to do just what he was doing. Did I like that he didn't set out after Yates himself, NO. But the 21 year old was probably being instructed to do what he did, otherwise you can bet we would have heard from UAE mgmt. that Isaac chose to ignore their orders. But what we did hear was they were happy with his result. Which I think was a terrible betrayal of their young rider, who I think was capable of more than that penultimate stage showed. The Giro finished on a truly sour note as far as I'm concerned, because it was not "raced" The most crucial stage of the whole 21 stage race was simply given away, playing games with the unwritten rules of bicycle racing. "Leaders jerseys responsibility" and all that nonsense. Just RACE! It was disgraceful.
reemmo004-06-2025 - Well this aged like fine milkGlyn31-05-2025
- This is just mean-spirited.agnessk29-05-2025