Favorites prologue Tour Down Under 2026 | First ochre jersey could fall into the hands of a Dutch rider

A very small time trial to kick off the Australian WorldTour race. From Victoria Street, the route is predominantly straight: a full-gas effort until Victoria Park comes into view. Riders face a sharp left, then right, and left again — lots of 90-degree turns. After another left turn, there’s a short push into the park.

Once inside the park it gets a bit more technical, with a tight left followed by a right loop, and the finish running in a kind of zigzag toward the line. The last turns are inside the final 500 metres, with the finish nestled among trees and greenery.

It’s summer in Australia, so it won’t be cold. After a Sunday forecast of up to 36 °C, race day Tuesday is expected to be cooler — around 29 °C in the evening when the prologue runs, potentially dropping to about 22 °C. A southwest wind at force 4 could also influence performances.

Being a great time trialist is one thing — prologues are a different discipline altogether. It’s no surprise that there are several real specialists. One standout is Maikel Zijlaard of Tudor; he claimed his lone professional victory so far in the Tour de Romandie and will be keen to strike in Australia.

But competition is fierce. Ivo Oliveira (UAE Team Emirates – XRG) has also made a speciality of short efforts. He’ll be joined by fellow strong rider Jay Vine, though the course might be too short and twisty for the Australian. That’s not the case for Sam Watson (INEOS Grenadiers) — he won this year’s Romandie prologue.

Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe bring two contenders in Laurence Pithie and Danny van Poppel, though we might not expect too much from Van Poppel on such a technical course. Kelland O’Brien, a track specialist racing on home soil, should go full gas — a win in front of a home crowd would be huge.

Also at the start for Jayco AlUla is Luke Plapp, but he isn’t known as the smoothest bike handler. Plenty of sprinters could pop up for a surprise in a short effort — Matthew Brennan (Visma | Lease a Bike), Ethan Vernon (NSN Cycling Team), or Sam Welsford (INEOS Grenadiers) could all pull off something here. Time trialists like Matteo Sobrero (Lidl-Trek) and Rémi Cavagna (Groupama-FDJ) are strong, but we’ve put them in the second tier.

Top favorites: Maikel Zijlaard (Tudor) and Sam Watson (INEOS Grenadiers)
Outsiders: Ivo Oliveira, Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Danny van Poppel and Laurence Pithie (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Long shots: Ethan Vernon (NSN Cycling Team), Matthew Brennan (Visma | Lease a Bike), Luke Plapp, Kelland O'Brien (Jayco AlUla), Matteo Sobrero (Lidl-Trek), Rémi Cavagna (Groupama-FDJ) and Sam Welsford (INEOS Grenadiers)