Favorites stage 12 Tour de France 2023 | Danger lurks at every turn!

The start will take place after lunch in Roanne, a town situated on the banks of the Loire River. The route quickly starts to ascend, albeit slightly. Within the initial ten kilometers, riders will need to conquer 176 meters of elevation, making it a deceptively challenging section. Following a brief descent, the route enters the hilly zone of the race, with the Cote de Thizy-les-Bourgs as the first obstacle. This 4.4-kilometer hill boasts an average gradient of 5.6 percent.

This section continues with a challenging terrain, followed by a relatively quick approach to the Col des Écorbans. This climb stretches for 2.1 kilometers and is notably steeper, featuring an average gradient of 6.9 percent. Following this obstacle, the route remains on a plateau-like section for some time before descending towards the intermediate sprint in Regnié-Durette. At this point, there are still 75 kilometers left to conquer.

The most challenging phase of the stage commences 65 kilometers from the finish, as we encounter three consecutive climbs (two second category and one third category). It begins with the ascent of the Col de la Casse Froide, which spans 5.2 kilometers with an average gradient of 6.2 percent. Following a rapid descent, the route proceeds to the Col de la Croix Montmain, another similar climb covering 5.5 kilometers with a gradient of 6.1 percent.

The riders still have a significant challenge ahead, as the toughest climb of the day awaits them. The Col de la Croix Rosier spans 5.3 kilometers with an average gradient of 7.6 percent, resembling a true mountain climb. At the summit, where bonus points are also available, there are just under thirty kilometers remaining until the finish line in Belleville-en-Beaujolais.

Here, the riders face few significant obstacles, aside from a 1.5-kilometer climb with a gradient of five percent. Caution is advised on the descent, although it is not overly challenging. The same applies to the final kilometers leading to the finish, as they take place on relatively wide roads. In the last three kilometers, there are three traffic circles to navigate, followed by a right-angle turn just 400 meters from the finish.

Times
Start: 1:25 p.m.
Finish: approximately 5:19 p.m.

Temperatures in France are notably lower compared to last weekend, which comes as a welcome relief for riders who are set to cover nearly 170 kilometers. The mercury is forecasted to reach around 26 degrees Celsius, accompanied by a gentle northward breeze.

The twelfth stage of the Tour is known for favoring the so-called baroudeurs, riders who are already trailing in the general classification and thus may find some freedom from the likes of yellow jersey holder Jonas Vingegaard and his fellow contenders. In this context, Danish rider Jonas Vingegaard has a valuable baroudeur in his team: Wout van Aert, the ambitious Belgian who is yet to secure a victory in this Tour de France.

With uphill starts, the opening stage is likely to be somewhat selective, meaning that not everyone will find space easily. Therefore, we do not anticipate a repeat of the Pello Bilbao scenario in this stage. Riders such as Valentin Madouas (Groupama-FDJ), Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step), Giulio Ciccone/Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), and Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) have already showcased their potential and possess the necessary abilities to excel in such a stage.

Israel-Premier Tech has been experiencing an exceptional run in this Tour de France, and they boast three riders who have the potential to secure a stage win. Michael Woods, Dylan Teuns, and Krists Neilands have already demonstrated their capabilities and possess the ideal skill set for a stage like this. Similarly, the EF Education-EasyPost team with Neilson Powless and Alberto Bettiol (we miss Magnus Cort!) and Movistar with Matteo Jorgenson, Alex Aranburu, and Ruben Guerreiro find themselves in a similar situation, with riders who have the potential to excel in this type of stage.

INEOS Grenadiers are increasingly becoming more actively involved in the battle for daily victories, which could create opportunities for riders like Michal Kwiatkowski and Omar Fraile. Warren Barguil (Arkéa Samsic) and Ion Izagirre (Cofidis) also feature on that list. However, they will face competition from emerging riders from the younger generation, such as Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny), Georg Zimmermann (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), and Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën). It's worth noting that Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) and Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious) also fall into the category of riders who might have enough distance to make an impact. This poses a significant threat, particularly in the case of Pinot!

And what about a classic-style rider like Mathieu van der Poel? The Dutchman hasn't hit his peak form yet, and therefore he may fall short of securing a victory today, although one should never count out Van der Poel. His teammates Søren Kragh Andersen and Quinten Hermans also possess the potential to excel in such stages, although they have been dropped quite early in the hilly stages thus far. Fred Wright and Matej Mohoric from Bahrain Victorious are also in contention, with Mohoric being particularly dangerous in stages of this nature.

What about the classification riders? This stage could turn out to be one of those unpredictable stages where everything gets mixed up. In such a scenario, top favorites like Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) will aim to stay at the front. However, skilled one-day riders such as Tom Pidcock, Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), and even Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) could take advantage of the situation. Nevertheless, considering the challenging weekend ahead, this strategy might not be the most plausible plan for the teams.

Top favorites: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X)
Outsiders:Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) and Alex Aranburu (Movistar)
Longshots: Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar), Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny), Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step), Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers)