Favorites mountain classification Tour de France 2025 | Can a strong climber beat Pogacar again this year?
CyclingWednesday, 02 July 2025 at 07:57
There are few tasks more frustrating than predicting the mountains classification in a grand tour. While the gc, points, and young rider classifications are often clear goals for riders, the battle for the polka dot jersey is usually between GC contenders, a few riders who really go for it, and leaders who have lost their GC hopes and shift their focus. There are thirty possible scenarios you could come up with, but we’ll highlight the ten riders who could be cheering in Paris.
In recent years, the mountains classification has been a battle on two fronts. Often, we see a few strong climbers collecting points in the first one or two weeks, only for their efforts to be undone in a brutal third week packed with big climbs and mountain points. Tadej Pogacar won both the Tour and the polka dot jersey this way in 2020 and 2021, while Jonas Vingegaard did the double in 2022.
It was only in the last two seasons that we had winners who really dedicated themselves to the mountains classification. In 2023, the entire Lidl-Trek team rode hard for Giulio Ciccone, while last year Richard Carapaz managed to secure the jersey with aggressive riding and collecting points wherever he could. Neither of them will be at the Tour in 2025: Ciccone dropped out of the Giro due to injury, and Carapaz is ill.
So we’re looking for riders who are willing to tear themselves apart for three weeks, often risking that while they collect a lot of points, they’ll run out of energy to win a stage. And with the risk that in the third week, the GC battle ignites, with the leaders going head-to-head and making the polka dot jersey unattainable...
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Richard Carapaz won the mountain jersey in the 2024 Tour de France
Most recent winners mountain classification Tour de France
2024 Richard Carapaz
2023 Giulio Ciccone
2022 Jonas Vingegaard
2021 Tadej Pogacar
2020 Tadej Pogacar
2019 Romain Bardet
2018 Julian Alaphilippe
2017 Warren Barguil
2016 Rafal Majka
2015 Chris Froome
2023 Giulio Ciccone
2022 Jonas Vingegaard
2021 Tadej Pogacar
2020 Tadej Pogacar
2019 Romain Bardet
2018 Julian Alaphilippe
2017 Warren Barguil
2016 Rafal Majka
2015 Chris Froome
Favorites mountain classification Tour de France 2025
To compile this list, (former) editors at IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten in response to the question: "Who is most likely to win the mountain classification in the Tour de France?" Each top ten was assigned points: 12 points for first place, 10 for second place, and then 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 point, respectively.
10. Lennert Van Eetvelt - Lotto
Hey, we know this name! Lennert Van Eetvelt also appeared in the young rider classification, as the 23-year-old Belgian from Lotto could easily chase a good GC result. But if that doesn’t work out due to a lack of preparation, Van Eetvelt instantly becomes a very dangerous stage hunter for a whole bunch of tough finishes.
In April, Van Eetvelt suffered a small fracture in his foot, but over the past few weeks he has been able to train hard to be ready in Lille on July 5. Van Eetvelt is, in principle, a true grand tour rider – someone who only gets better heading into the third week. But with his last race being the Tour de Romandie in May, we might also see him as an active breakaway rider.
9. Oscar Onley - Picnic PostNL
This name also popped up on another list, as 22-year-old Oscar Onley is also eligible for the white jersey. The third-place finisher from the Tour de Suisse could aim for a top ten overall, but Picnic PostNL would much rather see him attacking and using his excellent climbing legs in a strong breakaway.
The lightweight rider will need to hunt for UCI points for the struggling Picnic PostNL team. And the mountains classification is an absolute goldmine for that – just ask XDS Astana, who won the mountains jersey at the Giro d’Italia with Lorenzo Fortunato. The Dutch team also has the squad to support Onley in breakaways.
8. Clément Champoussin - XDS Astana
Speaking of Astana, the Kazakh team will also be at the Tour de France hunting for stage wins and UCI points. The mountains classification will undoubtedly be part of that strategy again. The team lacks a GC contender and a sprinter for the green jersey, so the polka dot jersey is the perfect target to sink their teeth into.
For this classification, Astana theoretically has several cards to play, with riders like Harold Tejada, Simone Velasco, Sergio Higuita, and Yevgeniy Fedorov, but in our view, Clément Champoussin is the designated man for the job. The Frenchman finished tenth at the Tour de Suisse and will undoubtedly want to show himself every day in front of his home crowd.
7. Julian Alaphilippe - Tudor
Tudor Pro Cycling is making its debut at the Tour de France and is calling up almost all of its big names for the race, as it should. A few entries down, we mention what we see as their most realistic contender for the mountains classification, but we absolutely shouldn’t rule out Julian Alaphilippe. The Frenchman showed with his fifth place in Switzerland that he’s regained top form. That’s promising.
Now that Alaphilippe seems to have lost some of his punch and a GC result is out of the question anyway, Loulou can fully enjoy himself for three weeks. And the polka dot jersey? He would undoubtedly sign for that. It requires a lot of energy and usually comes at the cost of stage wins due to all the intermediate sprints, but if anyone is willing to pay that price…
6. Felix Gall - Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale
What about Felix Gall in the Tour de France? The 27-year-old Austrian finished an impressive eighth overall in 2023, even taking a stage win. Last year he finished fourteenth, though that was with a disrupted preparation. So there is definitely a chance that Gall will fully commit to a GC run for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale.
But as is the case for many others: there are only ten spots in the GC top ten. If something goes wrong, Gall can put his strong legs to use in another way. The fourth-place finisher from the Tour de Suisse is a pure attacker and not afraid of adventure. The polka dot jersey is a good plan B if plan A falls through.
5. Santiago Buitrago - Bahrain Victorious
What applies to Gall certainly also applies to Santiago Buitrago. The 25-year-old Colombian is fully focused on the GC, aiming for a top five finish and even considers the podium within reach. We hope for him that his legs are indeed that good and that he can leave his mark in the battle with the big names of the general classification.
But if that doesn’t work out, Buitrago’s profile also makes him a dangerous contender for the polka dot jersey. Most of the big climbs come in the third week, so there will be plenty of time to come up with a new plan. Buitrago is explosive enough to win mountain sprints and, in his best form, he is someone who won’t get dropped by many riders in the mountains.
4. Michael Storer - Tudor
The winner of the Tour of the Alps in April had high expectations for the Giro d’Italia, but crashes and bad luck turned it into an anonymous performance for Tudor’s team leader. He matched his 2024 result with a tenth place overall, but that wasn’t what he came for. The 28-year-old Australian was so strong in the Tour of the Alps…
In the Tour de France, a GC result will be out of the question. With an entire Giro already in his legs, he will normally lack the endurance compared to riders who trained for this all winter. But after the Giro, he should still have enough left in the tank to go all in for stage wins and the mountains jersey. In that role, he already won two stages at the 2021 Vuelta a España. Can Storer repeat that in the Tour?
3. Lenny Martinez - Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious made it clear in their Tour press release that they are fully backing Buitrago for the GC, positioning him as their clear leader. This allows Lenny Martinez to start his second Tour de France somewhat under the radar. The 21-year-old Frenchman could aim for a GC result, but perhaps spending three weeks attacking and riding aggressively would be a much wiser path towards reaching the world’s top.
Martinez has already won stages this year at Paris-Nice, Romandie, and the Dauphiné, and with his explosiveness and tactical cleverness, he is an ideal candidate for the polka dot jersey. Does he see that himself too? If so, the young climber could make French cycling fans very happy in Paris. And if he is truly in top form and goes for a GC result, that would also delight them.
2. Jonas Vingegaard - Visma | Lease a Bike
Everyone is expecting an epic battle between the two best Grand Tour riders of the moment, and if that happens – and Visma | Lease a Bike turns it into another three-week war of attrition – there will be little left for the early breakaway riders. We will then see many stage finales where the GC contenders face off against each other, which will also shape the mountains classification.
In the first two weeks, it will be up to the attackers, before the big names scoop up the points on the major climbs in week three. Jonas Vingegaard is coming for the overall Tour win, and if he has the legs for that, the polka dot jersey almost automatically comes into play as well. A yellow-polka dot combination is very realistic in 2025 if the two big names are indeed as strong as they claim to be.
1. Tadej Pogacar - UAE Team Emirates-XRG
The big problem for Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike is a certain Tadej Pogacar – both for the yellow jersey and, indirectly, for the mountains classification. The polka dot jersey has never been a goal for either of them, but as mentioned, Visma knows that the only way to crack Pogacar is to make the race hard every single day. And that leads to finales where the GC contenders fight for stage wins.
Pogacar won’t mind at all. He proved in the 2024 Tour how dominant he dares to be when he’s clearly stronger than everyone else. He won six stages but was generous enough to let Richard Carapaz take the polka dot jersey. That was possible because he was so much better than Vingegaard and the rest. But if the Dane is breathing down his neck, there will be no room for gifts from Pogacar.
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Latest Comments
- Maybe I was a bit disrespectful to Heiden. What he did was unique and exceptional but he wasn't the only one who combined those distances, nowadays it is just not possible and nobody competes in both distances. The same is true for cycling with for example the combination of Roubaix and de Tour de France. In Merckx era there were more riders who managed a top10 in both races than currently.Joostmehrtens19-06-2025
- Two old men shouting at pigeons in the park…JonS16-06-2025
- Out of touch old men hankering after their youth through rose tinted spectacles, their arrogance almost outshines their irrelevance. Turn the volume down, this modern stuff just isn't music like we used to sing...johnny20whales16-06-2025
- In talking speed skating, the days when Heiden did that, nobody else did that. And Eddy couldn't do the equivalent of the bike. His 200 on the velodrome was good, but not world competitive for gold. Heiden was in his own world on the ice, moreso than Eddy if we pretend Eric didn't have a very short career on the ice.Veganpotter16-06-2025
- They wouldn't have dropped HIM so easily.... the GOAT. They would have dropped the rest from that era easily thoughVeganpotter16-06-2025
- Merckx was able to win in a break away on a flat (sprinters) stage, what do you mean they did not drop that easily in his time. Vlaeminck won in the mountains and the classics, but now you need to specialise. The days that a Eric Heiden could win the sprint and the 10k and everything in between are long gone and cycljng is no differentJoostmehrtens16-06-2025
- Carsapaz and Del torro were not capable of chasing Yates. They paused and looked at each other because they didn't have it in them. Yates had kept his powder dry waiting for this stage and demolished both of them. They lost Yates won. Your second guessing is utter nonsense., if either felt they could close Yates down they would have , just like they did countless times for other riders. They blew up , Yates excelled.Uphillbilly05-06-2025
- Carapaz is full of it. He is absolutely irrelevant after a rant at del Toro. Isaac had no obligations to do anything for Carapaz. It should remind one of the saying that goes lke this: "If I jump off the bridge, are you going to jump too?" If Caapaz wanted to win the Giro he should have chased Yates with or without Isaac. And if del Toro could follow, then so be it. But it was Carapaz's choice to slow down and stare at Isaac. Isaac was on the radio at times and you can bet he was being told by the Team car to do just what he was doing. Did I like that he didn't set out after Yates himself, NO. But the 21 year old was probably being instructed to do what he did, otherwise you can bet we would have heard from UAE mgmt. that Isaac chose to ignore their orders. But what we did hear was they were happy with his result. Which I think was a terrible betrayal of their young rider, who I think was capable of more than that penultimate stage showed. The Giro finished on a truly sour note as far as I'm concerned, because it was not "raced" The most crucial stage of the whole 21 stage race was simply given away, playing games with the unwritten rules of bicycle racing. "Leaders jerseys responsibility" and all that nonsense. Just RACE! It was disgraceful.
reemmo004-06-2025 - Well this aged like fine milkGlyn31-05-2025
- This is just mean-spirited.agnessk29-05-2025