Favorites stage 14 Tour de France 2023 | Pogacar will want to spread his wings on Joux Plane!

We will kick this stage off with the full group in Annemasse, near Lake Geneva. Just a few kilometers from the Swiss border, which often means one thing: climbing, climbing - and more climbing. That's no different for this fourteenth stage of the Tour, during which the riders will have to overcome more than 4,200 meters of elevation gain.

From Annemasse, the road immediately starts to ascend. Officially, the Col de Saxel is the first obstacle we'll encounter, after 14.5 kilometers (4.2 kilometers long, averaging 4.6 percent). But in reality, the road gradually climbs for the first approximately twenty kilometers. This is where opportunistic riders and breakaway specialists will try to gain an advantage, putting themselves into position for later in the stage.

From the top of Saxel, we descend towards Fessy, where we immediately begin the next climb: the Col de Cou, a first-category ascent. It stretches for seven kilometers with an average gradient of 7.4 percent. The initial part is particularly challenging, with the second kilometer climbing at nearly eleven percent.

Afterward, following a descent to Orcier, another obstacle awaits: the Col du Feu, also a first-category climb. It is slightly shorter than the Cou, spanning 5.8 kilometers, but its 7.8 percent gradient does mean it's steeper. After a brief descent, the intermediate sprint is located on the Col de Jambaz, a 6.5-kilometer ascent averaging 3.8 percent. Following a well-deserved descent of about fifteen kilometers, we proceed to the next climb.

The Col de la Ramaz is notably longer than its predecessors but falls into the same category. The riders face 13.9 kilometers with a 6.9 percent average gradient, although the first 7.5 kilometers ascend at an average of 8.1 percent. Once we round this summit and complete a fifteen-kilometer descent, we finally encounter the first flat sections of this stage.

Between Taninges and Samoëns, where the base of the Col de Joux Plane is located, there are ten challenging kilometers to conquer. But then comes the col that Lance Armstrong famously struggled with in 2000 and later referred to as a "killer": the Joux Plane, followed by the finish in Morzine after a tricky, technical descent. It spans 11.7 kilometers, with an average gradient of 8.5 percent, leaving no room for recovery. This truly is a beast of a mountain.

There has been some commotion in recent weeks regarding the technical descent of the Joux Plane. However, CPA president Adam Hansen has now given the green light after a video of his reconnaissance trip. "Riders have shown me difficult spots, and the ASO has examined them. There are no issues with the road from the top of the climb to the finish. The video ends less than a hundred meters from the finish line."

Times
Start: 1:05 p.m.
Finish: approximately 5:20 p.m.

On Saturday, the riders will not only face challenging climbs, but also the heat. In the starting town of Annemasse, it is forecasted to be 34 degrees Celsius, while in the higher-altitude finish town of Morzine, temperatures will hover around 31 degrees. The wind is in the riders' favor on both the Joux Plane and the section leading to it, which may be conducive to attacks.

The crucial question for every mountain stage: will the general classification riders fight for the stage victory, or will they allow some opportunistic riders to use this opportunity? In this stage, we once again ponder over that thought, although we give a slight advantage to the big names: UAE-Team Emirates will smell blood after Friday's stage, while Jumbo-Visma is gradually entering the terrain of their top leader.

With that in mind, we can immediately share the absolute top favorites: Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard, who else? The Slovenian rider has now closed in on the yellow jersey from Denmark, trailing by just nine seconds, which means he can potentially take over the coveted jersey on Saturday. With strong domestiques such as Marc Soler, Felix Grossschartner, Rafal Majka and Adam Yates, Pogacar should certainly feel confident heading into this stage. However, it is not out of the question that he might still use Yates to help smoke out the Jumbo-Visma riders in the hilly opening phase of the race.

As for Jumbo-Visma and Vingegaard, they saw Tiesj Benoot, Wilco Kelderman and Wout van Aert drop back a bit earlier, partly by design. The Dutch team claims that the harder, the better. Therefore, Vingegaard will likely hold up relatively well as the number of climbing meters increases, and this stage - with 4,200 meters of elevation gain - should suit him pretty much perfectly. The demanding Joux Plane climb will also play to the Dane's strengths.

Jai Hindley (BORA-hangrohe) has managed to stay with the other two contenders the longest so far, while Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers) and Carlos Rodríguez only seem to be improving more and more in this race. The Brit can rely on his descending skills on the Joux Plane descent. Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla) has also been consistently performing well day after day, so we are also including him in our favorites batch for this stage.

For the breakaway, we can look at positions eleven to sixteen in the overall standings. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) are unlikely to have much freedom, but for Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), Romain Bardet (DSM-Firmenich), Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën Team), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), and Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious), this is an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.

Then there are the riders who are slightly further behind. Names that immediately come to mind are Mattias Skjelmose and Giulio Ciccone of Lidl-Trek, although we should note that the latter recently had a fall. Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) will see opportunities in this stage after his performance on Puy de Dome, as well as Ion Izagirre, who previously won in Morzine in 2016 and is currently riding high after his victory with Cofidis. The same goes for the surprising winner on Grand Colombier, Michal Kwiatkowski of INEOS.

Due to the mountainous nature of the stage, the pool of potential winners seems limited, but riders like Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar), king of the mountains Neilson Powless and his teammate Esteban Chaves (EF Education-EasyPost), Ben O'Connor (AG2R Citroën), Warren Barguil (Arkéa Samsic), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) and Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious) will at least want to give it a try.

Top favorites: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
Outsiders: Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) and Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty)
Longshots: Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers), Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) and Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X)