Favorites stage 19 Giro d'Italia 2023 | Barbaric course for road warriors of this Giro

If Thursday's stage was still a four-star stage, Friday's will immediately be given five stars by anyone looking at the terrain profile. At the start in Longarone, everything seems fine, as the last time the Giro passed through here, we had a flat finish and Mark Cavendish won. But this crucial Giro Friday will be far from smooth sailing...

The first thirteen kilometers can still be considered flat, but after that, the road starts to climb steeply in this 183-kilometer-long stage. After 87.5 kilometers, we encounter the first summit of Passo Campalongo, which according to the route book is four kilometers long with an average gradient of seven percent. However, that stands in stark contrast to the real figures, as it is actually seventy kilometers of false flat (with some steeper sections interspersed).

After a descent of ten kilometers, we arrive in San Cassiano, where the road immediately starts to climb again. This time, it's for the first category climb, the Passo Valparola. The Passo has two faces: the first seven kilometers can still be considered relatively easy, but after that, the gradient percentages turn entirely red and black.

Next, we head towards the well-known Passo Giau, one of Italy's most illustrious mountains: 9.8 kilometers with an average gradient of 9.3 percent. These are the kinds of obstacles that would give riders like Cavendish nightmares. And after that, we still have two more to conquer...

From Cortina d'Ampezzo, which is 22 kilometers away from the finish, the Passo Tre Croci emerges. With its eight kilometers at 7.3 percent gradient, this section is also far from easy. After a small interlude, it is time for the absolute highlight of the day: Tre Cime di Lavaredo.

Officially, the final climb is 7.1 kilometers long with an average gradient of 7.8 percent, but with a descending kilometer in between, this does not reflect its true difficulty: the last three (especially two) kilometers ascend at dizzying percentages: 10.5, 14.6, and 13.6 percent - and this at the end of an already incredibly demanding stage. Giro organizers, that's just barbaric.

Times
Start: 11:50 a.m.
Finish: around 5:15 p.m.

For those who, after seeing the course, don't have much sympathy for the riders yet: it also expected to rain right from the start, although the weather may clear up after a couple of hours. There is also a chance of rain at the finish line in Tre Cime di Lavaredo, while there will be (light) headwind during the final section, with temperatures hovering around 10 degrees Celsius.

For those who still had their doubts: Primoz Roglic is more than fine, as he demonstrated in Thursday's stage. It looked like the Slovenian was struggling a bit during the day, but on the final climb, he showed that was not the case at all. The Friday stage is where he needs to make something happen - and the Jumbo-Visma team knows it.

The main rival for Roglic, as it turned out, is Geraint Thomas. The INEOS Grenadiers Welshman was the only one who could keep up with the three-time Vuelta winner, making him the other top favorite for Tre Cime Lavaredo. Thomas also has the advantage of wearing the pink jersey and can adopt a slightly more defensive approach.

Joao Almeida suffered a small setback with a time loss of twenty seconds, after being the best on the Monte Boldone on Tuesday. The Portuguese UAE-Team Emirates rider showed that he is more comfortable on longer, less steep climbs than on the shorter ones. That may not bode well for Friday's stage.

Other GC contenders such as Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Andreas Leknessund (Team DSM), Lennard Kämna (BORA-hansgrohe) and, after his breakaway on Thursday, Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), are unlikely to compete for the stage victory, as the overall standings in this Giro are now relatively settled. Domestiques Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma) and Jay Vine (UAE-Team Emirates) may have the legs, but they will ride with certain restraints.

However, there were some riders who lost enough time on Thursday that they may now have the freedom to join the breakaway. In recent days, riders such as Hugh Carthy (EF Education-EasyPost), Ilan Van Wilder (Soudal Quick-Step) and Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) were not given that opportunity, but now, with a few more minutes lost, they have a chance.

When it comes to the chances of a successful breakaway, we can likely stick to the same list of names because you need to have exceptional form to win here. Filippo Zana (Jayco AlUla) demonstrated that in Val di Zoldo, but even for riders like him, Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech) and Lorenzo Fortunato (EOLO-Kometa), winning will be an incredibly challenging task due to the difficulty of this nineteenth stage.

Top favorites: Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) and Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers)
Shadow favorites: Joao Almeida (UAE-Team Emirates), Ilan Van Wilder (Soudal Quick-Step) and Filippo Zana (Jayco AlUla)
Longshots: Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), Hugh Carthy (EF Education-EasyPost), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) and Jay Vine (UAE-Team Emirates)

Tom van der Salm (Twitter: @TomvanderSalm) | email: [email protected])      

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