Favorites stage 2 Tour de France 2025 | This is why Mathieu van der Poel came to the Tour de France!

The start of the 209-kilometer stage is in Lauwin-Planque, a tiny village about 20 kilometers south of Lille. After an initial phase heading south, the peloton will turn towards the coast, i.e., westward after passing through Arras. This is where the separation between the Northern and Southern Netherlands began in 1579 with the Union of Arras.

Enough history lessons. After 104 kilometers, the rolling landscape of northern France gives way to the first categorized climb. The Côte de Cavron-Sain-Martin (1.2 km at 5%) is certainly not difficult, but it is the start of an even hillier phase. This concludes in Énocq, where an intermediate sprint is located approximately 60 kilometers from the finish.

By then, we will be just near the coast. And that means the wind could have even more influence. The race heads north towards the finish in Boulogne-sur-Mer, which means the wind will be coming from the left. Twenty-five kilometers after the intermediate sprint, we come to the Côte du Haut Pichot, a really tough one. Then it's 30 kilometers to the finish, but the real finale is yet to come.

After that climb, there is a stretch of flat asphalt, which means that a breakaway there does not seem very logical. But the last 10 kilometers are sure to be spectacular. The Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont is 1.1 kilometers long and climbs at 9.4%. The steepest sections even reach 16%! The top is 8.5 kilometers from the finish line, but there is another climb to follow: the Côte d'Outreau is short (800m) but also climbs at 8%.

It is then downhill to Boulogne-sur-Mer, but the finish will not be flat either. The last kilometer will feature sections with gradients of up to 11%. The finish will still be relatively difficult. Who will claim the victory? If we do get a sprint, we can look back 13 years for a reference. The last winner at the finish line was Peter Sagan, who showed everyone how it's done with his signature "running man" victory gesture.

Climbs
104km - Côte de Cavron-Sain-Martin (1.2km at 5.2%)
179km - Côte du Haut Pichot (1.1km at 9.1%)
200.5km - Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont (1.1km at 9.4%)
203.8km - Côte d'Outreau (0.8km at 8.1%)

Times
Start: 12:15 PM local time (06:15 AM EDT)
Finish: 5:20 PM local time (11:20 AM EDT)

We are in the north of France. It can sometimes be scorching, but changeability is the keyword on the Channel Coast. This will also be the case on Sunday, as the temperature will start at around 16 degrees, and it is unlikely to rise much higher than that. It will be a relatively cool day on the bike, with a chance of rain in the afternoon. It will not be a downpour, but it could still have an impact. The same goes for the wind: on the coast, the westerly wind could be a factor. With wind force 4, it's not a storm, but if it's in the right direction... Who knows?

The Amstel Gold Race, the GP Québec... Comparisons with the big classics are pretty easy to make with this awesome stage. That's why we're looking at the classic types first. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) will have come to the Tour de France for opportunities like this. His form in the Critérium du Dauphiné was promising, but in the (comparable) first stage, he was beaten by Tadej Pogacar.

If the Slovenian is on fire, he will be challenging to beat. The world champion from UAE Team Emirates - XRG could strike in the second stage and take the yellow jersey. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) were also in the Dauphiné. However, we would not normally put them on the same level as the (former) world champion.

They lack that extra punch, but someone who doesn't is Thibau Nys. The Belgian from Lidl-Trek is tempering expectations, but everyone knows what the combative top rider is capable of. A good Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) can also compete with the best on these kinds of finishes, but it remains to be seen what his level is. The same goes for Julian Alaphilippe. The Frenchman from Tudor showed his best form in years in the Tour of Switzerland.

There are a few other fast riders who, with a bit of luck, could survive the tough final. Names such as Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Kaden Groves, and Arnaud De Lie could be written down. Outsiders such as Axel Laurance, Sam Watson (INEOS Grenadiers), and Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech) also have a chance, provided the top riders don't go too hard on the challenging climbs.

There are plenty of riders who want to make their move there. EF Education - EasyPost has two dangerous riders, namely Ben Healy and Neilson Powless. However, riders such as Oscar Onley, Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), Jenno Berckmoes, Simone Velasco, and Louis Barré could also benefit from a good moment. And what about Wout van Aert? The Belgian from Visma | Lease a Bike has had a difficult preparation, but once he has a gap, he is difficult to catch.

Nys has already been mentioned, but Lidl-Trek has several cards to play. Amstel Gold Race winner Mattias Skjelmose appears to be focusing on the high mountains, but with Quinn Simmons and Toms Skujins, they have two national champions who excel in this terrain—other contenders: Jhonatan Narváez (UAE Team Emirates - XRG) and Alex Aranburu (Cofidis).  

Top favorites: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)
Outsiders: Thibau Nys (Lidl-Trek), Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), Neilson Powless (EF Education - EasyPost) and Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Long shots: Jonas Vingegaard, Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek), Ben Healy (EF Education - EasyPost), Axel Laurance, Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers), Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor), Jake Stewart (Israel - Premier Tech), Jasper Philipsen and Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])