Favorites stage 3 Tour de France 2025 | The big bad sprint beasts won't be fooled again, right? Right?

After the hills of stage two, it’s back to (almost) pancake flat terrain. We start in Valenciennes, where this year’s Dunkirk Four-Day finished stage three. Pierre Gautherat (TotalEnergies) took the win there, but on Monday, all eyes will be on the pure sprinters. From the city on the Scheldt, the peloton will head northwest, once again towards the northernmost coast of France!

Next, it will be super flat. For more than 140 kilometers, there’s barely a meter of elevation gain on the route. It’s a true standard sprinter stage, so don't expect much action from the early breakaway. After 117 kilometers, there’s an intermediate sprint in Isbergues, a town known for hosting the GP d'Isbergues every year, a one-day race won last year by Arvid de Kleijn (Tudor).

After that, the riders head to the only climb of the day. It’s a familiar one, as the Mont Cassel (also known as the Kasselberg) was already featured in stage one. It gained quite a bit of fame there, as it was on that cobbled climb in the center of Cassel that Benjamin Thomas and Mattéo Vercher battled fiercely for the polka dot jersey, resulting in a crash.

Hopefully, everyone can stay upright on the day’s only bump. From the top, it’s just over 30 kilometers to the finish, with no more elevation gain to worry about. The route is fairly straightforward when it comes to corners too, but the wind can always play a role in northern France. And it’s expected to blow hard on Monday! That could make for a tricky finale…

Climbs
146, 5 km - Mont Cassel (2.3 km at 4.1%)

Times
Start: 1:25 PM (local time) | 07:25 AM (EST)
Finish: 5:30 PM | 11:30 AM (EST)

After a day of strong winds and a day of pissing rain, Monday will bring a bit of everything on the way to Dunkirk. In the start town of Valenciennes, it should be dry at the start, but the afternoon will see sun, a few showers, and a strong wind. That wind will be coming from the north at force 3 to 4, meaning a cross or headwind for much of the stage. With temperatures between 16 and 18 degrees, it won’t be very warm, expect another stressful day in the saddle!

After two days of the Tour de France, there will be plenty of riders starting Monday’s stage with a knife between their teeth. First and foremost, that includes the sprint teams of Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier. The two fastest sprinters at the moment, riding for Lidl-Trek and Soudal-Quick Step, missed out on the echelon split on day one, leaving them to sprint for minor honors in the second group. They’ll want to change that on Monday, so expect them to be highly motivated.

Dylan Groenewegen is the third big name who came away empty-handed on the opening day. The Dutchman from Jayco-AlUla will also be hungry heading into Dunkirk. But they’ll have to overcome the powerful legs of Jasper Philipsen, who took the yellow jersey on day one and impressed with the Alpecin-Deceuninck sprint train. Biniam Girmay was also up there with Intermarché-Wanty, just as he was so often in the right place at the right time last year.

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Behind these big names, we find a huge group of contenders who might not be top favorites but are still incredibly fast. Think of Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), and Alberto Dainese (Tudor), all of whom have proven themselves at the highest level. The same goes for Arnaud Démare (Arkéa), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), and Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech), but the question is whether they can still compete against today’s top sprinters. Israel-Premier Tech also has Jake Stewart as an option.

There are also plenty of young and fearless riders who could easily pull off an upset. Paul Penhoët (Groupama-FDJ), Arnaud De Lie (Lotto), Pavel Bittner or Tobias Lund Andresen (Picnic PostNL), Stian Fredheim (or Søren Wærenskjold from Uno-X?), and Alexis Renard (Cofidis) won’t be afraid of anyone. From the Dutch side, Cees Bol and Mike Teunissen might get their chance, or will XDS Astana go for Davide Ballerini? Finally, let’s not forget Samuel Watson (INEOS) and Ivan Garcia Cortina (Movistar), both of whom have good legs.

Top favorites: Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quick Step) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Outsiders: Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco-AlUla), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Alberto Dainese (Tudor)
Long shots: Arnaud Démare (Arkéa), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech), Paul Penhoët (Groupama-FDJ), Arnaud De Lie (Lotto), Pavel Bittner, Tobias Lund Andresen (Picnic PostNL), Stian Fredheim, Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X), Cees Bol, Mike Teunissenen, Davide Ballerini (XDS Astana) and Alexis Renard (Cofidis)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])