Favorites stage 4 Tour de France 2023 | Sprinters unleashed in winding finale on car racing track

Stage 4 of the Tour de France 2023 kicks off in Dax, in the southwest of France. From there, the riders begin the almost 182-kilometer stage at 1:20 PM, which barely has any obstacles. Fortunately for the riders, they will have a tailwind for most of the day, although they have to take into account that towards the final 35 kilometers, the wind will turn against them.

Heading towards Vic-Fezensac, we move eastward, with no categorized climbs on the route. Only the meanwhile very familiar intermediate sprint, which comes after 93.6 kilometers at Notre-Dame des Cyclistes. Given the nature of the route and expected race dynamics, it remains uncertain if anyone will be motivated to initiate an early breakaway.

Anyway, let's move on to the grand finale. About 28 kilometers from the finish, we have the Cote de Demu (two kilometers at 3.5 percent), which is the only obstacle of the day, but that's not counting the lightning-fast final phase. The finish line awaits on the Nogaro circuit, also known as Circuit Paul Armagnac.

Unlike some other race tracks, this circuit boasts a completely flat profile, making it ideal for the turbo-charged speed demons in the peloton. However, they must remain sharp in the finale because a circuit is not complete its treacherous turns (something the Alpecin-Deceuninck team, with Mathieu van der Poel in particular, will enjoy). The last three kilometers feature more than five demanding turns, but the final 600 meters offer a long, straight section on the circuit.

Times
Start: 1:20 p.m.
Finish: approximately 5:12 p.m.

With winds from the east for most of the day, it will be pleasant between Dax and Nogaro, as the wind will be at the riders' backs for most of the day. It will be about 25 degrees Celsius, providing no reason for the riders to complain.

Copy-paste from stage three? Not so fast! Well, perhaps a little bit. At the Nogaro car circuit, two crucial factors come into play: positioning and timing. If there's one team that displayed mastery in these aspects on Monday, it was Alpecin-Deceuninck. Their sprinter, Jasper Philipsen, capitalized on the impeccably executed lead-out work of the car enthusiast, Mathieu van der Poel, who might just want a picture of himself celebrating on a circuit for his collection.

Compared to the stage to Bayonne, we give the pure powerhouses the benefit of the doubt just a tad more, so Fabio Jakobsen quickly comes to mind. The Dutchman has the necessary horsepower in his sprint preparation, along with other fast riders like Yves Lampaert and Kasper Asgreen, as was evident on Monday. This time, the Dutchman will have to hold the wheel of his lead-out Michael Mørkøv.

The other Dutchman, Dylan Groenewegen, mentioned that due to poor positioning, he didn't have a chance to sprint. The Amsterdam native had to start his sprint early and only managed to finish eighth. He too will be hoping to do better in Nogaro;

The somewhat surprising second and third place finishers on Monday were Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious) and Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Dstny). The German and Australian were not considered top favorites beforehand but showed that they can compete. Perhaps on Tuesday, they can take the step to the top scaffold of the podium.

Sam Welsford (DSM-Firmenich) will encounter a stage suited to his strengths here, so he should be considered for the final kilometers as well. The same goes for Belgians Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Jordi Meeus (BORA-hansgrohe), who have strong lead-outs in Christophe Laporte and Danny van Poppel, respectively.

Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) seems to lack a bit of speed in such a flat sprint, which is also the case, to a lesser extent, for Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty) in this Tour. In terms of leg speed and power, these are also the stages where we can expect Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X, and not Alexander Kristoff) to have a chance.

Among the riders who can hope for a top ten finish, we have Peter Sagan (TotalEnergies), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech) and Luca Mozzato (Arkéa Samsic).

Top favorites: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal Quick-Step)
Outsiders: Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla), Sam Welsford (DSM-Firmenich), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious) and Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Dstny)
Longshots: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Mark Cavendish (Astana), Jordi Meeus (BORA-hansgrohe), Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Biniam Grimay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X) and Peter Sagan (TotalEnergies)