Favorites stage 5 Tour Down Under 2026 | Will Brennan capitalize, or will others prevail in Visma's last chance?
CyclingSaturday, 24 January 2026 at 11:44
As the first WorldTour race of 2026 nears its end, the riders head into the final stage of the Tour Down Under around Stirling on Sunday morning (Dutch time), where the overall standings will be settled. In this preview, IDLProCycling.com takes one last look ahead — because there are still objectives to be decided...
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Route stage 5 Tour Down Under 2026
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Stirling is a name steeped in tradition at the Tour Down Under — it was a regular stage finish from 2010 to 2016 and was also visited by the peloton in 2018 and 2020. Over the last two seasons, only the women’s race included the town.
The finish has not changed anything from all those times, as it is still on a strip of just over two kilometers at 3.7 percent. This climb - part of a two-stage rocket - must be done a total of eight times. The lap is otherwise not too much turning and turning, we count three right-angle turns and one U-turn.
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The last straight line to the line is without major obstacles but runs uphill. The maximum percentage of the climb is 6 percent, but because it also includes a descent, the average gradient drops considerably.
Stirling has produced some interesting winners in the past: from Michael Matthews to Tom Jelte Slagter and Diego Ulissi, to Caleb Ewan, who won it twice (in 2018 and 2020). Who will succeed him?
Times
Start: 11:10 AM
Finish: around 3:26 PM
Start: 11:10 AM
Finish: around 3:26 PM
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Weather stage 5 Tour Down Under 2026
Saturday’s stage was cut short due to extreme heat, but Sunday should see temperatures relatively cooler at around 33 °C (91 °F) in Stirling. Organiser Stuart O’Grady hopes the riders will be able to complete the stage in full.
Favorites stage 5 Tour Down Under 2026
For Visma | Lease a Bike, Sunday represents a final opportunity to salvage a stage win after two missed chances earlier in the week. The profile appears well-suited to Matthew Brennan, who combines sprinting speed with the ability to survive short climbs better than most fast men in the race. Positioning has not always gone to plan for Brennan on Friday and Saturday, but if he is where he needs to be in the finale, his legs should do the rest.
Jay Vine has already indicated that he expects Visma to help control the race, increasing the likelihood of a reduced sprint. In that scenario, Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) looks like one of the most dangerous challengers. The Dane already won Stage 2 and finished second in the uphill sprint on Saturday, confirming his excellent form.
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Ethan Vernon
The winner on Saturday was Ethan Vernon, though the question is whether the Brit from NSN can handle the succession of climbs as well as Brennan and Andresen. Perhaps other sprinters will come to the fore because of this. Think of Laurence Pithie, who already finished third on Saturday with Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe and now has a free pass due to the withdrawal of Danny van Poppel.
Because Juan Sebastián Molano at UAE will normally ride in support of Vine, we are also looking at Sam Watson at INEOS Grenadiers, who should be able to do better than Sam Welsford. Pure sprinters such as Alberto Dainese (Soudal-Quick Step) and Casper van Uden (Picnic PostNL) also seem to have no chance. Luke Lamperti of EF Education-EasyPost is interesting, although he would have preferred a slightly tougher race.
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Watson already won the prologue at the Tour Down Under on day 1
And then there is the scenario of day 3, the day on which UAE Emirates-XRG broke everything apart and it didn't turn into a sprint at all. Vine already spoke of defensive racing, but the Australian will of course follow the moves of others. Then we look at the general classification and the strong men there. Number 2 Mauro Schmid, will he try something for the overall victory on behalf of Jayco AlUla? Ben O'Connor is his teammate.
Other teams also have duos riding in or near the top ten. EF has Harry Sweeny and Michael Leonard (EF), Andreas Kron and Anthon Charmig are riding strongly for Uno-X Mobility, and Andrea Raccagni and Filippo Zana are keeping Soudal-Quick Step's honor high. Marco Brenner (Tudor), Matteo Sobrero (Lidl-Trek), and Javier Romo (Movistar) are holding their own at the top as individuals.
Other guys who could still make something happen from a breakaway or late attack? Well, Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe has Finn Fischer-Black in its ranks alongside Pithie, Jayco AlUla can still hope for the whims of Luke Plapp, and Embret Svestad-Bårdseng (INEOS), Chris Hamilton (Picnic PostNL), Simone Velasco (XDS Astana), Florian Stork (Tudor), and Patrick Eddy (Australia) are also interesting long shots.
Favorites stage 5 Tour Down Under 2026, according to IDLProCycling.com
Top favorites: Matthew Brennan (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM)
Outsiders: Jay Vine (UAE Emirates-XRG), Mauro Schmid (Jayco AlUla), Laurence Pithie (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Luke Lamperti (EF Education-EasyPost), Mauro Brenner (Tudor) and Andreas Kron (Uno-X Mobility)
Long shots:Ethan Vernon (NSN), Sam Watson, Embret Svestad-Bårdseng (INEOS Grenadiers), Michael Leonard (EF), Anthon Charmig (Uno-X), Andrea Raccagni, Filippo Zana (both Soudal-Quick Step), Matteo Sobrero (Lidl-Trek),Javier Romo (Movistar), Finn Fischer-Black ( Red Bull), Ben O'Connor, Luke Plapp (both Jayco AlUla), Chris Hamilton (Picnic PostNL), Simone Velasco (XDS Astana), Florian Stork (Tudor) and Patrick Eddy (Australia).
Long shots:Ethan Vernon (NSN), Sam Watson, Embret Svestad-Bårdseng (INEOS Grenadiers), Michael Leonard (EF), Anthon Charmig (Uno-X), Andrea Raccagni, Filippo Zana (both Soudal-Quick Step), Matteo Sobrero (Lidl-Trek),Javier Romo (Movistar), Finn Fischer-Black ( Red Bull), Ben O'Connor, Luke Plapp (both Jayco AlUla), Chris Hamilton (Picnic PostNL), Simone Velasco (XDS Astana), Florian Stork (Tudor) and Patrick Eddy (Australia).
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Latest Comments
- Nice!Bea22-01-2026
- Those events are mental rest for him. Fun, without expectations. *Sagan lost his abilities because he gained weight and got lazy. Pogi will likely retire before that has a chance at happening.Veganpotter14-12-2025
- Ah, the consequences of riding for Israel.Veganpotter11-12-2025
- Pidcock could follow everyone but Pogi while finishing 3rd. No second place rider this season😃Veganpotter16-11-2025
- Now the Palestinian protestors can stop their whining. Trump came to the rescue. So they can now STFU and go back to waving the rainbow flags.raufus15-10-2025
- Cracked the code lol. If it was that easy to 'crack the code' jonny Vegas would be charging up the Kwaremont giving Pog a dose of his medicine. Evenepoel can't match pog on a climb and neither can mvdp. Anything with a half difficult climb and Pog smashes the field. Even on flat(ish)parcours like Roubaix it came down to a mistake and crash by pog to definitively crown mvdp. MSR is the only one that Pog probably won't win.kevpt10-10-2025
- We've seen this movie before. I think Pogacar is doping.DeadBlow10-10-2025
- 👍Bea08-10-2025
- 👌🏻Bea08-10-2025
- What the data doesn't show is how much of an effect drafting had for evenepoel. Pogacar went with del toro at 100km whilst Evenepoel was still in the bunch. Despite the bike changes he still had a lot of assistance getting back to the bunch. Pogacar then rode 60km solo whilst evenepoel rode with Healy/Skjelmose until going solo in thd last 10-15km. Thats ~20% less power / energy requirements for 45-50km. Apples and oranges...kevpt30-09-2025
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