Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 11 preview | Many contenders on paper, but who counts on the road?

We are now halfway through the Giro d’Italia in terms of stages, though only 35% of the total elevation has been tackled so far. Wednesday brings a 195-kilometer journey from Porcari to Chiavari. In IDL ProCycling, we break down what’s on paper!

Stage 11 starts in Porcari, located in the Lucca paper district. On paper, the stage becomes challenging mainly in the second half, but riders will need to stay alert from the start.

For ambitious riders looking to make the break, this is a stage circled in red, as theoretically, the escape has a good chance of success. The first eighty kilometers, however, feature few obstacles to create real gaps, so the initial task will be simply to stay near the front.

Riders pass through Caiamore and Pietrasante in the early phase, areas familiar from the start of Tirreno-Adriatico. From this region, it’s easy to head inland and climb higher. The organizers this year route the race via La Spezia and the well-known tourist villages of Cinque Terre.

The Passo del Termine is considered a warm-up at 7.4 km with an average of 4.9%, while Colle di Guaitarola is a tougher climb at 9.9 km at 6.2%. Its summit comes with 60 km to go, the first 25 km mainly descending.

The riders then face Colla dei Scioli (5.7 km at 6.3%, with two steep final kilometers over 9%) and Cogorno (4.6 km at 6.4%), closely following one another. After the last climb, a final rising kilometer at 6.4% precedes the fast last four kilometers.

The closing section is technical, beginning with a winding descent, followed by several sharp corners within the final 2.5 km. The last kilometer is straight, culminating in a 400-meter finishing straight. The stage totals 2,850 meters of elevation.

Times
Start: 12:30 p.m. CET (11:30 a.m. GMT| 06:30 a.m. ET)
Finish: around 17:00 p.m. CET (16:00 p.m. GMT | 11:00 a.m. ET)

Wednesday’s conditions look favorable. Temperatures around 20°C, light wind, and sunshine set the stage for ideal racing conditions.

Riders in breakaways usually have the advantage on stages like this. However, the post-rest day situation could alter that: illness has affected the peloton, including Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe leaders Giulio Pellizzari and Jai Hindley, creating potential opportunities for other teams.

If rivals are pressured on the Guaitarola climb, gaps toward Chiavari could widen. Still, the most likely scenario is a contest between breakaway riders for the stage win, with some skirmishes behind for the general classification.

Some strong contenders already lag behind, which could impact the dynamics. Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) has yet to find his form in this Giro, as does Jan Christen (UAE Emirates-XRG), despite teammates Jhonatan Narváez and Igor Arrieta performing well.

Others to watch include riders with enough distance from the leaders but also sufficient climbing and punch capability. Michael Valgren (EF Education-EasyPost) won a similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico. XDS-Astana’s Guillermo Thomas Silva, Diego Ulissi, and Christian Scaroni remain threats, with Scaroni still relatively close in the GC despite losing time in the time trial.

Other teams are no longer affected by this and can therefore attack to their heart’s content. Watch out for Movistar (Javier Romo and Einer Rubio), Soudal Quick-Step (Andrea Raccagni Noviero, Filippo Zana, and Gianmarco Garofoli), Jayco AlUla (Koen Bouwman and Alan Hatherly), NSN (Corbin Strong and Alessandro Pinarello), Lotto-Intermarché (Simone Gualdi and Lennert Van Eetvelt, who is still relatively close behind), Unibet Rose Rockets (Wout Poels), and Uno-X (Andreas Leknessund and Johannes Kulset).

And what about the general classification? Will teams like Netcompany INEOS or Decathlon CMA CGM take a chance and put pressure on the Red Bull boys, who have had some illness in the team with Giulio Pellizzari and Jai Hindley? It’s unlikely to come from Visma | Lease a Bike with Jonas Vingegaard or Afonso Eulalio’s Bahrain Victorious, as they’ll likely be more focused on holding their positions.

It’s possible that the teams just below them, alongside the aforementioned squads, might already sense an opportunity. Riders like Michael Storer, Mathys Rondel (Tudor), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Chris Harper, and David de la Cruz (Pinarello-Q36.5) could make a move if they can join the early breakaway, though it’s understandable if other teams aren’t immediately willing to go along with that in week two of the Giro.

Top favorites: Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and Jan Christen (UAE Emirates-XRG)