Is Evenepoel the clear Amstel Gold Race favourite? Gilbert sees danger in that status

The Walloon, who with four victories is rightly known as Mister Amstel Gold Race, points to the risks for his compatriot. “Evenepoel will ride around on Sunday with a favourite’s label as big as his own team bus,” he says in his analysis for Het Nieuwsblad. “His team will have to ride from the very start. And we are talking about more than 250 kilometres. The danger is that he will run short of teammates in the final.”

Last year, Evenepoel, with Mattias Skjelmose in his wheel, impressively closed the gap to Tadej Pogačar. In the sprint, however, the Belgian came up short, while the Dane took the victory. Journalist Benji Naesen, in conversation with Gilbert, Oliver Naesen and Dirk De Wolf, sees a point 85 kilometres from the finish where the Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe leader could already make his move: the first passage of the Cauberg.

“That is where he can already open it up for the first time,” he says. Gilbert, however, believes such a scenario could also work against him. “If he rides away long before the finish with four or five riders, the weight of the race will fall completely on his shoulders. He will have to do much more work on the front than the others. That is not ideal either. In his place, I would stay with my teammates for as long as possible.”

So who are Evenepoel's rivals on Sunday? Benji Naesen doesn't see many, but points to Matteo Jorgenson as perhaps the biggest challenger. “He skipped the Flemish Classics this year and is putting a huge focus on Amstel and Liège. And he can fight for position and place himself well. His only problem is: how is he ever going to win? His sprint is pretty hopeless. He would have to drop Remco on the road. I really do not see that happening.”

Of course, Skjelmose cannot be forgotten. The defending champion was underestimated last year, something that seems less likely this time. On top of that, Benji Naesen believes he is not in the same form. “In the Tour of the Basque Country, he completely cracked a few times. And okay, those were already half-mountains, while the Limburg hills suit him better. But still…” Gilbert agrees. “I do not even expect Skjelmose in the final. At Lidl-Trek, they would be better off playing the Kragh Andersen card.”

Oliver Naesen looks toward the French riders. He names Kévin Vauquelin as a podium candidate, but also points to a rider from his own team: Paul Lapeira. Gilbert also rates the Decathlon CMA CGM rider very highly. “Smart rider, fast at the finish and never does one pedal stroke too many. Who knows Lapeira outside France? That plays in his favour.”

Benji Naesen, however, sees Tibor Del Grosso, in Van der Poel's absence, actually shine. He won the NXT Classic earlier this month. He also sees 'mini-Del Grosso' Senna Remijn as a real dark horse. 'He finished third in the queen stage of the Tour of Luxembourg last year behind Grégoire and Healy, but first in an elite group with McNulty, Carapaz, Hirschi and Skjelmose. Then you can do something.'