When the heat rises, some sprinters flourish while others flounder bet on — and the data proves it

It’s hot in France. Very hot, in fact, and that’s having an impact on the Tour de France. On Tuesday, for example, the UCI took action ahead of Stage 4: riders were allowed to receive water in bags at water stations, so they could hydrate more frequently and stay cooler. On Wednesday, the riders face another very hot stage, though according to the statistics, that could work in Jasper Philipsen’s favour.

First, let’s look at Tuesday, when the UCI intervened ahead of the fourth stage of the Tour. “It has been decided to exceptionally allow the use of feed bags in zones that were initially intended only for the distribution of water bottles (‘water bottle zones’) within the specified climbs,” the UCI announced.

Of course, there was a good reason for that, since it was sweltering in France. With temperatures nearing 40 degrees Celsius, a debate arose as to whether it was still safe to hold the races. Various voices from within the peloton suggested that perhaps not enough was being done to protect the riders.

Still, the race went on as usual, and it was Mads Pedersen who managed to win. That might not have been such a coincidence after all, considering the data published by Velofacts on X. It lists the highest average speeds for stages in Grand Tours “in the Strava era.” The data there goes back at least to 2014.

One name that comes up remarkably often: Mads Pedersen. With a temperature of 39.9 degrees Celsius, the fourth stage of this Tour de France was the hottest stage he has ever won in a Grand Tour, but the Dane also won the sixteenth stage of the 2022 Vuelta (36.6 degrees Celsius), the thirteenth stage of that same Vuelta (35.9 degrees Celsius), and the thirteenth stage of the 2022 Tour de France (also 35.9 degrees Celsius).

Another rider who appears on that list quite often is Jasper Philipsen. For example, the Belgian won Stage 15 of the 2022 Tour (39.5 degrees Celsius), Stage 2 of the 2021 Vuelta (37.3 degrees Celsius), Stage 5 of the 2021 Vuelta (36.6 degrees Celsius), Stage 7 of the 2023 Tour (35.8 degrees Celsius), and Stage 16 of the 2024 Tour (35.7 degrees Celsius).

And that’s certainly good news heading into Wednesday’s stage. In Stage 5 of the Tour de France, a sprint is expected in Pau, and the weather forecast calls for another very hot day there as well. Perhaps not hot enough for the stage to make the list of the 30 hottest stages in Grand Tours “in the Strava era,” but it will certainly be sweltering.

So who’s someone to keep an eye on? Pavel Bittner, from Picnic PostNL. The Czech rider is currently leading the standings after winning the fifth stage of the 2024 Vuelta. The temperature soared to a whopping 42.2 degrees Celsius back then. Phew!