Will we see an even better Pogačar at the Tour de France? 'I doubt that's still possible'

Tadej Pogacar will line up as the top favorite at the start of the Tour de France next week. The Slovenian has a chance to tie the record of five Tour victories, and would do so at just 27 years old. Every year, he seems to take another step forward, even when it seems impossible. Will that upward trajectory only continue? Jeroen Swart, Head of Performance at UAE Team Emirates-XRG, explains.

Pogacar is having another incredible season with thirteen wins to his name already. The world champion won Milan-San Remo, the Tour of Flanders, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Strade Bianche, and, in June, the Tour de Suisse. In Switzerland, he won with such overwhelming dominance that people are feeling pessimistic about the Tour de France.

"Looking at Tadej's data, he's certainly not improving in the same way as before," Swart tells Cyclingnews. "I'm a little surprised that we've been able to squeeze out some more improvement. If you had asked me two years ago, I would have expected that we had reached the limit, and that we now needed to focus on maintaining that level. To our surprise, he continues to make progress."

But the South African is keeping his options open for this Tour. It’s possible that Pogacar has reached his limit. “I’d be happy with the same Tadej we’ve seen in previous Tours—that would be great. If he improves even further, that would be welcome too. I doubt that’s still possible, but we’ll have to wait and see.”

But Pogi is Pogi, as Swart also knows. “I’m not ruling anything out. He keeps surprising us, and given his level of play, it’s been a surprise every year that he’s managed to improve even a little bit in certain areas. So I’m not ruling anything out, but I think the chances that he can take another step forward are getting smaller and smaller with each season.”

Joxéan Matxin Fernandez, team manager of UAE Team Emirates-XRG, recently stated that Pogacar’s class no longer comes solely from his legs. He is also world-class in terms of his mental game. It’s something the team has worked hard on. “I don’t think it’s just about Tadej,” says Swart. “It’s a general trend across all sports. Sports psychology and mental coaching are increasingly recognized as a crucial part of athletic performance. Whether it’s golf or cycling, it’s just as important.”

The question is: how do you keep a “cannibal” like Pogacar mentally strong? He wants to win everything, but he’s under immense pressure—both from within himself and from the outside world. On top of that, he has to stay motivated. Once you’ve won every race, how do you keep pushing yourself to the limit? It’s a difficult—but very rewarding—balance that UAE Team Emirates-XRG must maintain.

One of the most important factors in that balance is his race calendar. It has been perfected down to the last detail. “You’ll see that his race calendar is very much focused on his ambitions and goals, and it isn’t cluttered with races that aren’t meaningful. It’s a very carefully crafted schedule that allows him to pursue his goals while also ensuring he’s physically and mentally prepared for them.”