Will weather conditions ruin the Paris-Nice queen stage for the third year in a row?

In 2024, we were supposed to finish in Auron for the first time at Paris-Nice, but snowfall forced us to switch to a different route. On Thursday, it was already decided to switch to La Madone d'Utelle for Saturday.

The stage that started in Nice, just like this Saturday, was ultimately won by Aleksandr Vlasov, who held off Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic with a late attack.

Last year, the stage did finish in Auron as planned, but the course had to be modified along the way. The Col de la Colmiane and the Côte du Belvédère were removed, partly due to the risk of frostbite for the riders on the descents: as a compromise, the final climb remained. Michael Storer (Tudor) won the shortened stage from the early breakaway, in the snow.

In 2026, it seems likely that the stage to Auron will be subject to changes again. The forecast conditions for Saturday are not very promising, with heavy snow, temperatures around freezing, wind chill factors even lower than that, and winds picking up during the day.

Juan Ayuso and co have been working on this since the start of the stage race, as evidenced by the fierce battles for bonuses in the first stages. Thanks to those bonuses—he has already collected four in total—the Spaniard is in the lead after the team time trial.

The Lidl-Trek leader is two and three seconds ahead of the INEOS duo Kévin Vauquelin and Oscar Onley, while Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) is already seventeen seconds behind after the team time trial.

Wednesday's stage to Uchon (finishing on a climb with a final kilometer at 12.8 percent) also promises to be a tough battle. “Cold, rain, and crosswinds: a bit of everything,” Ayuso said ahead of the fourth stage, which is expected to be plagued by precipitation. But the temperatures will still be relatively manageable, at around 9 degrees Celsius.

For Auron, which is located at 1600 meters, that seems less likely to be the case for now.