2026 Tour de France polka-dot jersey favourites | These frustrated climbers are taking aim at Tadej Pogačar
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Follow us on GoogleFrom the “Eagle of Toledo” to the “Little One from Mere”: names like Federico Bahamontes and Lucien van Impe have brought glory to the mountains jersey in the Tour de France over the years. It remains one of the most iconic jerseys in the world of cycling. Who will be competing for the red-and-white polka-dots jersey in July? IDL Pro Cycling lists the favorites for the mountains classification (polka-dot jersey).
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Due to the dominance of the top favorites for the general classification, in recent years the polka-dot jersey has increasingly been won by the rider who also won the Tour de France. Starting in 2022, this was addressed: for uphill finishes, mountain points were no longer doubled. This gave riders who made the polka-dot jersey their goal a better chance of winning it.
As a result, Giulio Ciccone and Richard Carapaz took home the top honors in 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Tadej Pogacar was once again the best last year: he won his third mountains jersey in the Tour. So the new points system doesn’t rule anything out, but it certainly promises to be another exciting battle, especially thanks to certain commitments made by key contenders...
If a rider is the first to reach the top of a hors catégorie climb, he earns twenty points; the seven riders behind him also earn points. For a first-category climb, the top prize is ten points, though only six riders earn points there. In the second category, riders earn five points, with four riders scoring: the third category is worth two points, with two riders earning them, and the fourth category is worth a single point.
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Read more below the photo.
Tour de France polka-dot jersey recent winners
2025 Tadej Pogacar
2024 Richard Carapaz
2024 Richard Carapaz
2023 Giulio Ciccone
2022 Jonas Vingegaard
2021 Tadej Pogacar
2020 Tadej Pogacar
2019 Romain Bardet
2018 Julian Alaphilippe
2017 Warren Barguil
2016 Rafal Majka
2026 Tour de France polka-dot jersey favourites
To compile this list, current and former editors of *In de Leiderstrui* were asked to name their top ten in response to the question: “Who has the best chance of winning the mountains classification in the Tour de France?” Each top ten selection was assigned points according to the following scale: 12 points for first place, 10 for second, and so on with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 point. There may still be adjustments based on the final start list.
10. Lorenzo Fortunato - XDS Astana
At XDS Astana, Lorenzo Fortunato has established himself as a proven king of the mountains. The diminutive climber (1.70 meters and 57 kilos) had already won a stage in the Giro d’Italia, but in 2025 he was also the best in the mountains classification of his home race. And by a wide margin: he racked up no fewer than 355 points, nearly double that of second-place finisher and teammate Christian Scaroni.
That’s why the Italian is a rider to watch during the Tour de France. This year, he showed off his climbing skills in the Tour de Romandie, where—after a slow start—he finished fourth twice in the final stages. Whether he can truly contend for the mountains classification in the Tour remains to be seen: going head-to-head with Tadej Pogacar or Giulio Ciccone is quite different from racing against—with all due respect—Manuele Tarozzi.
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9. Paul Seixas - Decathlon CMA CGM
Well, what on earth can we expect from Paul Seixas in July? He doesn’t seem to know himself. One thing is certain: the French supertalent from Decathlon CMA CGM wants to shine, but we don’t yet know exactly how. He seems to be one of the top contenders for a spot on the final podium, but if that doesn’t work out, the mountains classification is a nice new goal.
Whether he really intends to make a serious effort at it remains to be seen. It is plausible, however, that he hopes to win as many stages as possible if the general classification goes out the window. And if he wins two or three stages in the high mountains, the 19-year-old top climber might just be unstoppable: the polka-dot jersey would then be up for grabs.
8. Florian Lipowitz - Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe
Florian Lipowitz capped off a stellar 2025 with a podium finish in Paris at the Tour de France. Behind the unbeatable Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard, he was clearly the third-best rider. And the team leader of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe is still only 25 years old. This year, his build-up toward July has been a bit slower, but steady. The further into the year he went, the better the German rider performed.
In the Tour of the Basque Country, he was left in the dust by Seixas, but in the Tour de Romandie, Lipowitz stayed uncomfortably close to Pogacar. Recently, he showed he was in excellent form at the Tour of Slovenia, with two stage wins and the overall victory. While it’s not very likely he’ll win the polka-dot jersey, he’s sure to finish high up in the standings.
7. Isaac Del Toro - UAE Team Emirates-XRG
Isaac Del Toro is in much the same boat as Seixas. The Mexican will be making his Tour de France debut and hopes to do so with as little pressure as possible. Torito’s performances make that difficult, but within UAE Team Emirates-XRG, one thing is clear: Pogacar is the star, and Del Toro will likely have to play a supporting role quite often.
But we are talking about the winner of the Tour Auvergne–Rhône-Alpes here. He was so good there that it’s certainly not out of the question that Del Toro could finish on the podium. And if that doesn’t work out, he might just go for his own chances and win some stages. In any case, with his climbing skills, a mountains jersey is a real possibility for the Mexican.
6. Jonas Vingegaard - Visma | Lease a Bike
We’ve arrived at the first rider who has already won the mountains classification: Jonas Vingegaard, a two-time Tour winner, also won the mountains classification in 2022. His focus this year will certainly not be on the polka-dot jersey, as his third yellow jersey is his absolute main goal, following his overall victories in 2022 and 2023.
That’s exactly where the obstacle lies. Tadej Pogacar showed in the Tour de Suisse that a fifth Tour title is closer for the Slovenian than a third is for the Dane. If Vingegaard were to actually win the Tour, he’d immediately have a good chance of winning the mountains jersey as well. That’s a big “but,” though, given that his longtime rival seems very hard to beat.
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5. Giulio Ciccone - Lidl-Trek
Another former winner of the polka-dot jersey. When you say “King of the Mountains,” Giulio Ciccone is the first name that comes to mind. And for good reason: the Italian rider from Lidl-Trek has already won the polka-dot jersey twice in the Giro d’Italia and once in the Tour de France. The climber also topped the mountains classification at the most recent Giro d’Italia, so we’re putting him on our list for the Tour de France once again.
We’ll have to put a few asterisks next to his favorite status. First of all, it’s important how fresh he is coming off the Giro. He gave it his all every week there to win a stage, but had to settle for “just” the blue jersey. On top of that, Lidl-Trek is bringing Juan Ayuso and Mattias Skjelmose along as team leaders. We don’t necessarily think of Ciccone as a model domestique, but he might have to put his own ambitions aside for the general classification ambitions of his teammates.
4. Valentin Paret-Peintre - Soudal Quick-Step
There are climbers, and then there are pure climbers. Put Valentin Paret-Peintre in the latter category. With his build (1.78 meters and 52(!) kilograms), the Frenchman is perfectly built for high-altitude climbing, and he already demonstrated that last year in the Tour de France: he saved the Tour for his compatriots by claiming the stage victory at the summit of Mont Ventoux.
This year, he wants to make a push for the mountain classification. Few riders have openly expressed these ambitions, and given his qualities, we should certainly rank Paret-Peintre very high on the list. He’s also surprisingly explosive, which means he can perform well in the mountain sprints as well.
3. Richard Carapaz - EF Education-EasyPost
Richard Carapaz was eager to make up for missing out on the pink jersey in last year’s Giro d’Italia, but he was unfortunately forced to sit out this year’s edition. The Ecuadorian rider from EF Education-EasyPost therefore shifted his focus and set his sights directly on the Tour de France. And there, he will not normally be riding for the general classification.
The winner of the 2019 Giro d'Italia is aiming to claim the mountains jersey for the second time. Given his current form, that’s a very real possibility: he finished second in the Tour de Suisse and showed there that his climbing legs are in top shape. With a little more fine-tuning of his form, he’ll definitely be ready.
2. Lenny Martinez - Bahrain Victorious
When Lenny Martinez finished the first stage of the 2025 Tour de France, it looked like we were headed for a disappointment. But the very young climber hung in there, making his presence felt at the front of the pack on nearly every stage. He stole the hearts of French fans and held onto the polka-dot jersey for a long time, though he eventually had to hand it over to—yes—Tadej Pogacar.
But it left him wanting more. This year, the 22-year-old rider from Bahrain Victorious has taken new strides: he won a stage at Paris-Nice, finished third in the Tour de Romandie, and second in the Tour of Catalonia. In the high mountains, Martinez is among the world’s best—when he puts his mind to it. With a clear goal in mind, the Frenchman is one of the top contenders for the polka-dot jersey.
1. Tadej Pogačar - UAE Team Emirates-XRG
Boring, isn't it? No matter how you look at it, Tadej Pogacar seems to have taken yet another step forward compared to 2025. The Slovenian lost only five of his sixteen race days this year and has already racked up thirteen victories, including stage wins. And he’s also the defending champion in the Tour de France—not just in the battle for the yellow jersey, but also for the polka-dot jersey.
In the Tour de Suisse, he won the overall classification with a 6.30-minute lead over his closest rivals. The final stage to Villars-sur-Ollon may well be a sign of things to come in the Tour: Martinez fought tooth and nail, but Pogacar steadily powered his way up the climb and mercilessly overtook the unfortunate Frenchman with about 700 meters to go. That killer instinct also makes him the top favorite for the mountain stages in the Tour.
David Bavin-HobbsChief Editor
David has been working in the sports & cycling industry for 16 years. Covering racing, business and technology, he has worked in communications for cycling companies, teams, and as a journalist. His proudest achievement is winning the first bike race he ever entered. He hasn't won a race since.
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