Armstrong and Wiggins warn of 'nasty' first week: "They’ll risk their lives to win a stage"

Wiggins sees that the flat stages and the hilly rides could cause a lot of problems. “It's going to be a nasty first week, it's going to be tough for everyone,” Brit says bluntly. “We'll see riders in the GC lose time due to splits in the peloton, the wind, or the rain if it comes. Then there's the time trial in Stage 5, which will motivate everyone to stay at the front so they can wear the yellow jersey. We expect Remco (Evenepoel, ed.) to be there in particular.”

Armstrong agrees with his friend. The American has also had his share of experience with the nervousness of week 1, which he usually got through well. But he, too, knows that accidents can happen. “It's a week where you can lose a lot but not win much,” says the Texan, who understands the theatrics of the race. “It's great for the spectators because a lot can happen, but it will be very nerve-wracking.”

George Hincapie, former super-domestique for his compatriot, sees the current format as a break with tradition. “In recent years, the GC contenders had a few tough stages early on, but now they will be much more nervous because they are thinking about bad luck with all the wind, rain, and other factors,” said Hincapie. In 2023, Adam Yates won the difficult first stage, while last year, Romain Bardet made his move in the opening stage.

Now, it won't necessarily be the climbers but the sprinters and punchers who will be going for the win. There are a lot of them so that it will be chaotic. “Some will risk their lives to win a stage or be in the breakaway. Anyone can make it to the finish, but anything can happen due to crashes. Anything can happen, so there will be a lot of action. If I were one of the contenders, I would be very nervous.”

Johan Bruyneel agrees. 'We're going back to a more classic Tour, with the first 10 days without any challenging stages. This is different. In terms of stress, it will be overwhelming. Sprinters have numerous opportunities. I also think there are ideal days for breakaways, so we'll see what the sprinter teams do in that regard. This is the Tour: you have to pursue every opportunity you get."

Given that there is ever more control, we will see fewer breakaways and, therefore, more battles for the breakaway opportunities, according to the Belgian. “We are seeing fewer and fewer breakaways. It is full of opportunities for the world's best sprinters. The fact that we have the time trial in stage 5 will give us the first clashes in the GC.”

The time trial in the area of Caen will already make a big difference. Bruyneel sees his compatriot Remco Evenepoel as the favorite, as does Wiggins. Men like Filippo Ganna or Tadej Pogacar will normally be defeated. “There will be no surprises. It's 33 kilometers flat for the specialists. Remco will probably win; I see him in yellow there. From there, if he has the yellow, he will try to defend it until stage 12.”