Can Evenepoel learn from his Amstel Gold mistake? “Sprint win against Wout was a poisoned gift,” says team director

In the finale, Evenepoel impressively closed the gap to the soloing Tadej Pogacar, something no one else had managed that year. With Mattias Skjelmose on his wheel, the three headed toward the finish together. The Belgian then opened the sprint early, launching from 300 meters out. “Too early,” Klaas Lodewyck, who was in the Soudal Quick-Step team car at the time and is now again part of Evenepoel’s setup, told Het Laatste Nieuws. “The slowest rider of the trio won.”

That came only a few days after Evenepoel had beaten Wout van Aert in the Brabantse Pijl. In hindsight, Lodewyck believes that victory may have shaped the way Evenepoel judged the Amstel finale. “Looking back, that sprint win against Wout in Overijse was something of a poisoned gift. Feeding off the euphoria and without fear, he went to the finish with ‘Pogi’. But Pogacar was on the verge of cracking. And Skjelmose would also have been dropped with one strong acceleration on the final Cauberg.”

Despite how powerful he had looked during the race, Evenepoel gambled on the sprint. His team director, who made the move with him to Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, describes it as a kind of macho stand-off. “In the sprint, Tadej and he did not want to give an inch to each other. With the consequences we all know. A shame.” Skjelmose took the victory that day, but Evenepoel now has the chance to go back for revenge in the colors of his new team.

With the absence of Pogacar, as well as that of Van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel, Tom Pidcock, Isaac Del Toro and many more, Evenepoel is absolutely the man to beat on paper. That also means the whole race will be watching him. Many cycling fans believe the two-time Olympic champion has a major opportunity to make the difference early.

Lodewyck, however, is keen to ease the pressure slightly. In his view, Evenepoel does not need to blow the race apart from a long way out. He could also wait until deep into the finale. “He does not necessarily have to ride away from 40 or 50 kilometers from the finish. The chance to make the difference after a hard race will still be there. Use it, I would say. Like Philippe Gilbert, Enrico Gasparotto and many others did further back in the past.”

That is a key tactical point for Evenepoel. His engine gives him the option to attack from distance, but Amstel Gold Race has often rewarded riders who time their move slightly later, especially when the race has already been made hard over the Limburg hills. With the favorite’s label so firmly on his back, every acceleration from Evenepoel will be followed closely. That makes choosing the right moment even more important.

“If it does not work, Remco can still rely on his sprint speed,” Lodewyck continued. “In the Volta a Catalunya we saw that he does not have to be afraid of going to the finish with someone.” There, in the opening stage, Evenepoel showed a serious turn of speed on a difficult uphill finish against riders who were, on paper, faster than him. He fell just short of keeping Dorian Godon (INEOS) from victory.

Still, Lodewyck does not believe Evenepoel needs to wait for a sprint. The Amstel Gold Race appears tailor-made for him. “It is a race that invites you to race. It is usually already on from early on, and an offensive mindset is rarely, if ever, punished, unlike in stage races. If you are good and you get away, you are quickly out of sight of the chasers. Remco really enjoys that.”

That may be the biggest reason Evenepoel will line up as such a dangerous contender. The course rewards aggression, repeated accelerations and the ability to keep driving once a gap has been opened. Yet last year’s lesson is also clear: being the strongest is not always enough. This time, Evenepoel and Lodewyck will hope that strength, patience and timing all come together on the roads of South Limburg.