Dumoulin sees a way for Van Aert to win a Monument: “Maybe it’s time to do that too”

In the new NOS Wielerpodcast, Dumoulin discusses the spring favourites alongside fellow Dutchman Michael Boogerd. Naturally, the conversation quickly turns to Van der Poel. “He does indeed now have the chance to become the outright record-holder,” Dumoulin says. “Most wins in the Tour of Flanders on his own… that’s something to be really proud of.”

Boogerd also sees that record as a huge motivator for the Alpecin-Deceuninck star. “He knows his limitations, because he can’t win a grand tour,” he says. “He’s not Pogačar, so he can’t win Lombardia and he can’t win Liège. So the next thing you do, if you’ve already won Flanders three times, is go for a fourth. If he’s on form, he’s very hard to beat in those kinds of races.”

Say Van der Poel in spring, and you’ve been saying Van Aert in the same breath for years. But in recent seasons, the Belgian has had less and less of a say — even though he is still desperate to add a Monument to his palmarès. Can he still do it? “I think it’s going to be very difficult,” Boogerd says. “But I really hope he does, because he’s a fantastic rider.”

The former Rabobank man feels Van Aert may have lost a fraction of his top-end punch. “You saw it last year in Flanders and Roubaix… when guys like Van der Poel and Pogačar accelerate, he has to let them go. He often comes back later, because the base, the endurance, is still there. But I think he’s sacrificed a bit of explosiveness.”

Dumoulin agrees with that reading. “He’s just a really, really good rider. He’s very close to Mathieu van der Poel’s level, but he’s just missing that little bit.” For the 2017 Giro winner, the difference is also tactical. “When I analyse it, I see that he reacts a lot. He reacts to what happens in the race.”

And that, Dumoulin says, is where Van der Poel separates himself. “He makes the race. He attacks, he drops a bomb 100 kilometres from the finish. And you can see it’s increasingly a success story — you see it with Pogačar as well. The guys who dare, who have the nerve, they’re ultimately the guys who win races.”

So Dumoulin has a message for Van Aert — and it’s aimed squarely at Paris-Roubaix. “Maybe it’s time for Wout to do that too,” he says. “In Paris-Roubaix, the Monument that suits him best… he definitely has a lot of chances there. Because if he waits for Mathieu to go, if he waits until Pogačar goes… then it can end up being another year of almost.”

Dumoulin points to the kind of all-or-nothing move Van Aert produced in last season’s final stage of the Tour de France, when he managed to drop Pogačar on the climb to Montmartre. “That showed courage. That was everything or nothing.”

In the Monuments, Dumoulin says, the pressure and the narrative can become a burden. “In Belgium, there’s so much pressure put on him in the media. He has to do it for the whole nation. It’s almost like that works against him. He’s never been bad, but maybe it pushes him into a more reactive way of racing.”

That leads to Dumoulin’s conclusion. “When nobody expects it anymore, like on Montmartre, he goes and he blows it apart. Then it really is all or nothing: either I drop Pogačar, or I have nothing. If he can do that in a race like Roubaix, I still think it’s possible.”