Favorites stage 15 Tour de France 2025 | 2018 shows this stage could turn into a tactical game

We start on Sunday in Muret, where the riders will set off towards the east. The opening phase is not entirely flat, but it is pretty much so. We then head towards Saint-Félix-Lauragais, where the intermediate sprint is scheduled after 60 kilometers. Will the sprinter teams control the race to fight for the points?

After that, the first two climbs of the day will quickly come into view. After 70 kilometers, the riders will begin the Côte de Saint-Ferréol, a third-category climb that is 1.7 kilometers long with an average gradient of 7%. After a short descent, the Côte de Sorèze (6.2 kilometers at 5.5%) immediately follows. At the top, there are a few kilometers of nasty climbing, after which the riders begin the descent.

After a short, flat section, the riders face the last, but also the most difficult, climb of the day. The Pas du Sant is a steep wall of 2.9 kilometers with an average gradient of 10.2%. At the top, there are just over 50 kilometers to go to the finish, but the climbing is far from over.

At the top of the Pas du Sant, the road climbs for 15.3 kilometers at an average gradient of 4.1%. This is a tricky section, where strong riders with a powerful engine can undoubtedly make a difference. At the top of this uncategorized climb, it is mainly downhill to the finish. The descent is quite long, as the road descends for approximately thirty kilometers.

Towards Carcassonne, which we of course know as the inspiration for the board game, the last ten kilometers are flat, after which we arrive at a somewhat winding finale. With 4 kilometers to go, there is a tricky section of the course, with some difficult corners and a narrowing of the road. After that, it's on the same road towards the flamme rouge, which is just after a sharp right-hand turn. With about 700 meters to go, there is one last left-hand turn, although there is also a slight left-hand turn just before the finish.

Whereas Saturday was mainly gray, dreary, and wet, summer weather returns to the Tour on Sunday. The temperature is expected to rise to around 30 degrees Celsius, while the wind will be fairly strong. It will blow from behind for most of the stage, although there is a section in the middle where the wind will come from behind at an angle.

This stage is very similar to the fifteenth stage of the 2018 Tour, and the scenario could well be the same as it was then. Magnus Cort won that stage from a breakaway group of 26 riders, which included big names such as Bauke Mollema, Greg Van Avermaet, Niki Terpstra, Daniel Felipe Martinez, and Marc Soler.

The baroudeurs, in other words, because Tadej Pogacar will surely want to give this stage away, right? To his buddy Mathieu van der Poel, for example, who has been in the mix in all stages with a similar character in this Tour de France so far. Should it come down to a sprint with a small or large group, Alpecin-Deceuninck also has Kaden Groves up its sleeve.

When you say Mathieu van der Poel, you say Wout van Aert. The Belgian from Visma | Lease a Bike will also have his sights set on this stage to Carcassonne, where he will once again meet some of the men he saw on day eleven. Think of Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X), Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek), and Axel Laurance (INEOS Grenadiers). We also saw Arnaud De Lie and Mauro Schmid that day, but they had a tougher time on Saturday.

And that's not all. This is another day that suits Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) perfectly, and with Alex Baudin, Neilson Powless, Harry Sweeny, and Vincenzo Albanese, they have a bunch of free riders in that team. Soudal Quick-Step can also give its men a little more freedom after the withdrawal of Remco Evenepoel, which opens up opportunities for Pascal Eenkhoorn and Max Schachmann.

The battle for the breakaway of the day will therefore be fierce; that much is certain. For the teams of Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) and Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), this will be a difficult stage to control. Pogacar and his UAE Emirates-XRG men will not do so either, although they could give Tim Wellens or Jhonatan Narváez a chance at stage success via the breakaway group.

Any outsiders left? Definitely! Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Laurence Pithie (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Toms Skujins (Lidl-Trek), Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies), Bastien Tronchon (Decathlon AG2R), Ivan Romeo (Movistar), Romain Grégoire, Valentin Madouas (Groupama-FDJ), Julian Alaphilippe, Matteo Trentin (Tudor), Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla), Simone Velasco (XDS-Astana), and Alexey Lutsenko (Israel-Premier Tech) thrive on days like these in the Tour de France.

Top favorites: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek)