Onley's INEOS move 'makes sense for both parties,' argues Bruyneel - but it involves many risks

The transfer market is almost closed, though a few riders are still finding new teams. But INEOS Grenadiers may yet have one major move up their sleeve: the British squad are reportedly interested in Oscar Onley. Could they secure the homegrown star they’ve been looking for? Johan Bruyneel thinks it’s possible, though he also wonders what Picnic PostNL will do.

Earlier this year, Onley had already been linked with a transfer, but the story has resurfaced. "I've read some speculations," Bruyneel said on The Move podcast. "It's not official, but it would make sense to me. The question is: It's the 5th of December. To see that happening now would be unique, but not impossible. For INEOS and Oscar, it would make sense."

Derek Gee, who dramatically split from his team this year, is also considered a leading candidate. But the Belgian analyst sees limitations. "Derek Gee has not yet proven that he is a solid leader that a team can build their whole program around, and neither has Onley. I think he has been more consistent than Gee, but they are both podium candidates in Grand Tours, not candidate winners in today's cycling. But there aren't many that are available."

Onley surprised many by finishing fourth in this year’s Tour de France, but he may still be a diamond in the rough. "is he going to perform at the same level when he is not with Picnic PostNL? I would guess yes, he is a good rider," Bruyneel analyzed. "As for INEOS: they kind of need a British top rider. And it's the only one available right now. The Yates brothers are set, and Adam has been at INEOS before."

But would Picnic PostNL really let the Scot go? It is certainly possible, Bruyneel argues, because Dutch team boss Iwan Spekenbrink has done it before. "I would call him the Wheeler Dealer in professional cycling: it has happened a lot that riders from his team that had an existing contract, left. Tom Dumoulin, Marc Hirschi, Marcel Kittel.... In that point of view, he has been a very smart business decision maker. He caught a lot of money for letting riders go that still had a running contract. That is another way of financing the team - or his own pocket."

Bruyneel, however, does not support this approach. The downside, he says, is that it becomes difficult to build a true team. "I have struggled to understand: if you have these stars riders, and you are getting these sponsors on board like DSM, firmenich and you name it... I don't know how he can justify these departures to his sponsors."

"Maybe he makes a deal with the sponsors that they'll have to pay less," he speculates. "But your team is getting weaker and weaker. And it's safe to say: that team is one of the weakest, if not the weakest in the WorldTour."This year the team finished 17th in the WorldTour rankings, but it won only four times - with their standout performance coming at the Tour de France.